The health situation in Russia is turning into a disaster. Over the past week, the country has recorded an average of 550 daily deaths from the coronavirus and 19,000 new cases per day. The curves are skyrocketing, raising fears for the worst and even heavier numbers in just a few days.
While Europe – except Portugal and the United Kingdom, the fault of the Delta variant – is generally experiencing a drop in cases, what is happening in Russia to explain such a terrible toll? 20 minutes make the point.
What is the current situation in the country?
Currently, the R, the virus’s reproduction rate, is 1.12. In other words, a person sick with the coronavirus infects an average of 1.12 new people. As soon as a patient infects more than one person on average, the epidemic progresses. For comparison, the French R is estimated at 0.66, explaining the drop in the number of cases in the country.
This Monday, 21,650 new people were infected and 611 deaths are to be deplored. “It’s been over a month since the R is above 1”, informs Antoine Flahault, epidemiologist and director of the Institute of Global Health at the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Geneva. A peak may have been reached on June 9, with an R at 1.2. The R has since gone down a bit, but as long as it stays above 1, the cases will continue to increase.
Russia has two epicenters of the epidemic, Moscow and St. Petersburg, which together account for 38% of the deaths on Monday (while only 10% of the Russian population lives in these cities).
Unlike Western Europe, Russia did not experience a third wave in March-April, “but rather a long plateau from March a little above a low threshold,” says Antoine Flahault. However, as we saw with France in March, but also with Germany last November-December, such a high plateau always ends up leading to an increase in cases. This is currently happening in Russia. If the second Russian wave, between October and December like the rest of Europe, totaled more cases – 30,000 per day during the peak -, such a level of death has never been reached.
Is the Delta variant involved?
The Delta variant is considered to be 60% more transmissible than the Alpha variant, itself estimated to be between 50 and 74% more contagious than the original strain of the coronavirus. He is responsible for the outbreak of cases in India, UK, Israel or Portugal. A ready-made explanation for Russia then? Yes and no. Yes, because the Delta variant represents 15% of cases, which is not insignificant and which may explain part of the increase. No, because with 85% of new contaminations not resulting from this variant, it cannot be held responsible for the entire epidemic outbreak. “The increase also comes from the original strain and the Alpha variant,” says Antoine Flahault.
Which makes you fear the worst. More transmissible, the Delta variant always ends up competing with other strains of the virus. In other words, it always ends up becoming the majority and occupying more and more shares in the percentages of new contaminations. Russia is therefore almost doomed to see the Delta variant become the majority. However, given the increase in cases with only 15% of Delta, what will happen when the latter, more transmissible, we remind you, will occupy the major part of the contaminations?
Can vaccination help Russia?
Yes, but there is still a long way to go to provide sufficient immunization coverage. Russia currently has only 15% of first-time recipients, including 11.7% double vaccinated. A figure far, very far from France, with 49.5% of first-time vaccines including 28.5% fully vaccinated, and let’s not speak of the United Kingdom (66.5% first-time vaccinated, 48.7% fully vaccinated). ). However, vaccination started around the same time as in the rest of Europe, without meeting the same success.
“The national vaccine, Sputnik V, is a source of mistrust and shunned. Counterintuitively, it is the most pro-Putin Russians who are the most recalcitrant to vaccination. It is not therefore a question of a political blockage, but rather a cultural one: the Russians are very skeptical and full of doubts about government communication, ”depicts Antoine Flahault.
However, things could finally move. The epidemiologist reminds us: “When deaths increase in a country, vaccination starts to rise again. Proof of this is in the United Kingdom in particular, where the first doses began to stagnate before the new wave of the Delta variant started vaccination again.
Russian politicians have also taken matters into their own hands. Moscow and more than a dozen Russian regions have introduced compulsory vaccination for certain categories of the population, especially in the European part of the country, but also in distant regions such as those of Sakhalin and Magadan. What quickly increase the percentage of first-time vaccines.
What other measures has Russia taken?
In addition to vaccination, Moscow has reimposed a return to teleworking for at least 30% of unvaccinated employees and made a health pass compulsory for going to restaurants. Containment is not currently considered, in order to preserve the economy.
More worryingly, in Saint Petersburg, the Euro is being played and should host one of the quarter-finals at the stadium. “This decision makes no sense, plague Antoine Flahault. The country is struggling to apply strong brakes and does not want to be aware of the situation. “