The Kremlin’s interest in the Italian parliamentary elections of September 25 is clearly greater than it should be. Interested in the sense of: in anticipation of an outcome that would be acceptable to the Russian regime. And if the major Italian media interprets this interest correctly, Vladimir Putin and his followers would be very happy if the right came to power in Rome, as the polls predict. “Russian interference” these days wrote several newspapers in large letters on their first page. The Turin Journal La Stampa chose an even more ominous headline: “Russian Shadows”.
The concern was triggered by Dmitry Medvedev, former President of Russia and now de facto number two behind Putin, with a post on Telegram. He wrote there that European citizens had it in their hands to vote out their “stupid governments”. The fact that Europe is expecting a cold winter is entirely their fault. He wasn’t specific about Italy’s elections, but Italians are the next Europeans to vote. They took the post personally. But it’s still the case that interference only works if someone can be influenced. And Medvedev has so often proved himself to be Putin’s hawkish chief propagandist in the recent past that his intentions should be obvious.
Nevertheless, Moscow believes that it can help ensure that traditionally Eurosceptic, foreign policy ambivalent to pro-Russian forces win the elections in Italy and thereby destabilize a united Europe in this delicate phase. Part of the Italian public is quite receptive to Russian propaganda about the war in Ukraine – out of an old reflex: the two countries have always been close, culturally and often politically too. Trade relations are very close, and the sanctions against Russia are hurting many Italian companies.
Putin has old friends in Rome – they are probably about to win the election
The right is divided, at least at first glance. The favored post-fascists, Giorgia Melonis Fratelli d’Italia, have supported all measures taken by the government of outgoing Prime Minister Mario Draghi since the beginning of the Russian war of aggression, even though they are not part of it: arms deliveries to Ukraine, sanctions against the Russian nomenklatura – they have agreed to everything. Meloni is now constantly saying that if Italy were prime minister, she would remain firmly on the side of NATO “without any ifs or buts”. So a clear commitment. It should allay fears in Europe: Meloni wants to appear as moderate as possible.
But this credo is very fresh, and her closeness to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has not been forgotten in the country. Also, Meloni’s allies are far more hesitant than they are on this issue. Forza Italia’s Silvio Berlusconi is a friend of Putin’s. He’s torn between what he calls “disappointment” at Putin’s recent development and old attachments. The two even vacationed together. When Berlusconi recently spoke to the Russian ambassador in Rome, he said afterwards that he had now learned the “truth” about the war in Ukraine.
During the election campaign, Matteo Salvini, head of the right-wing populist Lega, spoke above all of the high costs that Italy and the Italians shouldered for the more expensive gas and the sanctions – according to the motto: Are we sure that it’s worth fighting with Kyiv to show solidarity and take on Moscow? In the past, for example after the Russian annexation of Crimea, the Lega voted against sanctions. Salvini always liked to show himself in a T-shirt with Putin’s likeness – a fan. He also once said: “Send two Mattarella for one Putin” – Sergio Mattarella is Italy’s president. In 2017, the Lega concluded an agreement with “United Russia”, Putin’s party. Since then, people in Italy have been wondering whether the Lega will get any money from Moscow. Salvini denied. “I haven’t been to Russia for a long time,” he said laconically a few days ago.
But the Parliamentary Committee for Republican Security, known by the acronym Copasir, has its doubts. After Medvedev’s appeal, it was time for parliament to examine very carefully whether there were any parties receiving money from Moscow. The Kremlin is waging a “hybrid war” and deliberately spreading fake news, which then circulates on social networks. It must be clear to the Italians that Moscow wants to weaken the transatlantic alliance and has identified a possibly loose link in the chain. Just Italy.