Italy is slipping into a government crisis with no readily foreseeable solution. In a vote in the Senate on Thursday, not all partner parties expressed their confidence in Prime Minister Mario Draghi: The Cinque Stelle left the auditorium to manifest their displeasure. They were primarily concerned with differences regarding the so-called “Decreto aiuti”, an aid package worth around 18 billion euros, with which the hardships of families and companies in the inflation and energy crisis are to be alleviated. However, this aid was not enough for the party of ex-Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte. In the background, election tactical considerations also played a role: Italy will elect a new parliament in spring 2023 – if the date is retained.
Arithmetically, the vote did not pose a problem: 172 senators voted for Draghi, at least 106 would have been necessary. In fact, trust is intact, Draghi has a large majority behind him, the ministers of the Cinque Stelle remain in the cabinet. But politically the crisis has opened. The prime minister had made it clear in advance that his government of national unity would end if the Five Stars refused to trust him. He is now expected to resign, as he had hinted at in the days leading up to the vote.
Management of the government crisis would then be handed over to President Sergio Mattarella. He can ask Draghi to try again immediately – either with the same alliance, which negotiates a new pact for the rest of the legislative period, or with a new coalition. Above all, Draghi already ruled out the second option. If Draghi refuses to try again, Mattarella can also propose an alternative: an interim prime minister as managing director for a few urgent tasks. Economy and Finance Minister Daniele Franco and the President of the Constitutional Court, Giuliano Amato, are possible figures for this scenario.
Mattarella may also decide that it is time to dissolve the chambers and call new elections. They would then be due 60 days later, i.e. at the end of September or beginning of October. However, one hears from the president’s entourage that this scenario is the one he most resents.
Paradoxically, early elections would also displease the Cinque Stelle that triggered the crisis. The election winners of 2018 have shrunk in popularity in recent years: from around 33 percent to around 12 percent according to surveys. In addition, the party recently lost several dozen parliamentarians around Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio who support Draghi in a recent split.
If the Italians were to vote again now, the polls also show that the right would probably win. The strongest party is said to be Giorgia Meloni’s post-fascist Fratelli d’Italia, the only opposition in the country. The political turmoil in Rome also affected the stock market, and Milan’s index weakened. The yield spread of Italian government bonds to German Bunds has risen sharply – a sign of growing concern abroad.