When the 25 million Iraqis who are eligible to vote vote on the 329 members of the new parliament on Sunday, they have a broad spectrum: 3200 candidates from more than 100 parties apply. The election is an expression of a widespread desire for profound change: it was brought forward after the mass protests in autumn 2019, which forced Prime Minister Adil Abd al-Mahdi to resign, and should actually have taken place in June.
The anger of the demonstrators was directed against the entire perceived as deeply corrupt political system in Iraq. Offices and resources are allocated according to religious and ethnic proportions – and politicians see their task primarily in serving their own clientele. The Iraqis call this system Muhasasa, which was established after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein by the USA, mainly to guarantee political participation of all ethnic and religious groups in the country.
The term has long since become a dirty word, a synonym for the self-service mentality of the political class. Millions of Iraqis, on the other hand, have electricity at most for an hour at temperatures above 50 degrees Celsius, and the air conditioning fails. In many places there is no clean drinking water and there is hardly any other basic supply by the state, in whose administration billions from the oil business seep away.
But few dare to hope that something could fundamentally change in this regard. A new right to vote is supposed to make it easier for local applicants to get a seat; At least a quarter of the seats go to women, and nine seats are reserved for ethnic and religious minorities. Nevertheless, some of the activists who organized the protests in 2019 have called for a boycott, and many Iraqis are disaffected anyway. If the voter turnout was only 44.5 percent in 2018, it should be even lower this time.
Ex-head of the secret service wants another term
Like most experts, people suspect that the vote only confirms the old order with the blocks that have dominated so far. The MPs elect the president, a predominantly representative office that traditionally goes to a Kurd. What is much more politically important is that they have to approve the Prime Minister and his cabinet.
The post of head of government usually goes to a Shiite – around 60 percent of Iraqis belong to this Muslim denomination. The proportion of Sunnis is given at around 35 percent, including a large part of the Kurds, who in turn claim their own political representation as an ethnic group. The Arab-Sunni bloc is thus much smaller and has so far been served with the office of President of Parliament.
Interim premier Mustafa al-Kadhimi, former head of the secret service, is trying to secure another term in office. In the end, he relied on winning over the external powers that have a say in Iraq – above all neighboring Iran, the USA and the Sunni Gulf states with Saudi Arabia as the leading power.
The Shiite bloc, however, is divided. The strongest force in the 2018 ballot was the electoral list of preacher Muqtada al-Sadr, who finds supporters above all in the poorer sections of the population. He rejects the US military presence as well as the strong influence of Tehran and, although represented by followers in the government for years, poses as an opponent of the establishment. He now hopes to be able to expand his position so that he can nominate the prime minister – he could support Kadhimi.
Iran is heavily involved in the election
The main competitors are candidates from parties backed by heavily armed Shiite militias, the most important of which are supported by Iran or controlled by the Revolutionary Guards, including the Badr Organization and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq. The latter group is held responsible for attacks on US troops in Iraq. She rejects a re-election of Kadhimi, who is also cooperating with the United States and has failed to implement a parliamentary resolution calling for the withdrawal of all foreign troops. However, they have shown that they are using their weapons to defend their power: Hundreds of targeted killings of activists are said to be on their account.
There are also other Shiite parties, such as the former head of government Nuri al-Maliki. The Sunni bloc around President Mohammed al-Halbusi and the strongest Kurdish parliamentary group to date can imagine a second term in office for Kadhimi. However, it is likely that after the election the parliament will continue to be highly fragmented and a long struggle to form a government will ensue – at the end of which there will again be a cabinet based on the Muhasasa model.