It should be quick. The Iranians will elect a new president on June 28th, the successor to Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter accident on Sunday. At least those who still take part in elections are the minority. In the runoff elections for seats in parliament a few days ago, only eight percent were said to have cast their votes in the capital Tehran.
According to its constitution, the Islamic Republic could have given itself a few more days to schedule the election. The regime apparently wants to avoid any impression that Raisi’s death could have created a power vacuum in the country. After all, it was less than two years ago that Iran experienced the largest protests since the mullahs came to power in 1979.
:The regime is playing it safe
After the death of President Raisi, Tehran has to decide on the succession. The hardliner system is battered and unpopular, which is why it wants to protect itself from reforms by all means possible. Still, the transition could offer an opportunity for change.
The men at the top are aware of their unpopularity, because of the brutality with which they suppress opposition and because of the ongoing economic crisis. Even in the hours following the death of the president and his delegation, including Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, many in the country did not observe the prescribed state mourning.
Most people react with silence
Videos circulated on social media showing relatives of people who either died during the protests or who the regime has since executed; Some toasted Raisi’s death with forbidden alcohol, others danced, even that was forbidden. However, most people in the country stuck to the attitude they have adopted since the regime crushed the protests in autumn 2022: they remained silent.
There was nothing to indicate that the helicopter crash could lead to unrest or new protests. The fear in the country is too great for a new movement like back then, in 2022. This is where Ebrahim Raisi’s legacy lies: as president, he stood for the changes that the clerical regime has undergone in recent years. Towards an autocracy that no longer even pretends to seek the approval of its citizens.
Raisi won because the Guardian Council, which must approve all candidates, did not allow any serious opponents. Hardly anyone in Iran sees the fact that he is no longer president as a turning point. The significance of the deceased was that some saw him as the successor to Ali Khamenei. Khamenei, 85 years old, holds the real power, especially when it comes to foreign policy and Iran’s role in the Middle East conflict. Together with the powerful Revolutionary Guard, it was Khamenei who decided in April to attack the state of Israel from Iranian soil for the first time.
The regime is radicalizing
If Khamenei dies, the Council of Experts, a kind of clerical parliament, elected a few weeks ago, would choose his successor. Raisi was one candidate for this, another is Khamenei’s son. Just like the question of who will run and win in the presidential elections on June 28th, Khamenei’s successor is difficult to assess from the outside, not even for the people of Iran. Who will lead the regime in the future will be decided in closed circles in Tehran.
The only thing that is foreseeable is that the regime will continue to radicalize. The Revolutionary Guard will not allow anyone to take over leadership who cannot support its course, authoritarian at home and expansive in the region. At the same time, an inward-looking regime that has large parts of the country against it has only violence as a means of maintaining power.
The mourning ceremonies for Ebrahim Raisi and the other dead began on Tuesday. The bodies were later to be transported from Tabriz, near the crash site, to Tehran. Western governments, including the German and even the US, also expressed their condolences to the regime for its loss. The condolences from Beijing and Moscow sounded more sincere. Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke of “deep sadness”.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, a close ally of the mullahs’ regime, said Raisi was “highly respected” in his country. However, the Kremlin denied Iranian hopes that Putin could come to Tehran for the state ceremony for Raisi.