Interview with political scientist: “Loss of trust has never been so great”

Financial policy was the litmus test for the coalition from the start, says political scientist Reuschenbach in an interview. The loss of trust in the budget crisis is immense. The government must now quickly create facts.

tagesschau.de: Politics has been losing trust for years. How big is the loss of trust in the federal government due to the failure of the previous budget policy?

Julia Reuschenbach: The budget issue is a very complex one, so we have to wait and see how much this actually translates into a further loss of trust. But the already existing loss of trust in this traffic light coalition is indeed serious; it has never been so great – even though there are still two difficult years ahead of it. She must create facts to counteract this, especially with regard to the budget.

tagesschau.de: First the shadow budget as a new pot of debt, now the emergency has been declared. This causes confusion and uncertainty – how can politicians explain this retroactively?

Reuschenbach: This is possible if we now jointly state that 2023 was also characterized by a crisis situation like previous years. That’s pretty late in mid-November. It would certainly be advisable to seek support for this within the opposition ranks. At the same time, we must clearly state how we want to budget in the next few years, which the alliance has learned from the Federal Constitutional Court’s ruling.

“Realize, what is at stake”

tagesschau.de: If you look at the two poles of the traffic light with different positions on re-suspending the debt brake for the new year – how are you supposed to find a common line?

Reuschenbach: We knew from the start that fiscal policy would be the litmus test of this coalition. This is exactly where we are now. In my opinion, the only way forward is to quickly find a solution for 2024 and use this half-time to realize what is at stake. Then everyone is asked to move towards each other. My impression is that many voices, including from CDU-governed countries, point to a reform of the debt brake. I wouldn’t want to judge at this point whether this coalition will still succeed.

tagesschau.de: But the Constitutional Court also told politicians that they had to become faster and more consistent in climate protection – how can politics manage this balancing act?

Reuschenbach: All three parties said in the coalition agreement that they wanted to take the climate protection ruling seriously. But when it comes to implementation, fundamentally different control ideas come together. The crucial question is how the state should get involved here. And how much does he want to impose on future generations? This can only be achieved through honest and open political communication that expects people to do something. But to make it transparent that only a compromise between all three parties can be the solution.

tagesschau.de: Is the Chancellor able to fulfill his role as mediator at the moment?

Reuschenbach: Olaf Scholz set two things at the beginning of his chancellorship: Firstly, that whoever appoints leadership gets leadership. Secondly, in a new three-party alliance, all three parties must be able to shine. The Chancellor constantly goes through this balancing act. In the debates following the verdict, he has so far been insufficiently present and not very visible. But here the entire government is responsible when it comes to whether scenarios can be thought of, depending on how Karlsruhe judges.

Reform of the debt brake with the FDP?

tagesschau.de: The role of the CDU could also have a destructive effect: is the Union doing itself a favor?

Reuschenbach: The Union played a key role in creating this situation through its lawsuit in Karlsruhe; that is its right as an opposition party. But we also see that CDU prime ministers are affected by this because they also helped set up such special funds. There are different opinions there too – and it is a party that is still in the process of finding its new basic program. This entire situation means that the CDU is unable to benefit significantly from the situation. But that also prevents her from contributing constructively.

tagesschau.de: By suspending the debt brake again, the FDP has to give up a central promise. What consequences does this have for the party?

Reuschenbach: In the coalition with the Union from 2009 to 2013, the FDP experienced that the failure to fulfill election promises was of great importance for its supporters. At that time you were elected from the government and from parliament. That was devastating. In this respect, it was to be expected that the FDP would try everything to deal with this differently.

tagesschau.de: At the same time, the Greens see that they can also advocate for painful compromises within their own ranks because special times require special political action.

Reuschenbach: That is why the FDP would certainly have an opportunity to gain more support and conviction for this alliance within its own ranks. The other course of sharpening the party’s political profile has not, at least so far, improved the party’s situation.

tagesschau.de: How far can Lindner go without alienating more FDP voters?

Reuschenbach: This is a challenging situation. They have agreed to this alliance with two parties that have different ideas, for example when it comes to new debt. In order to address the situation, Lindner could adopt the reform of the debt brake as a core project. However, it is unclear whether he will have the necessary tailwind from the FDP.

“Common fiscal policy Find line”

tagesschau.de: Opposition should be corrective – let’s look at the AfD, which is exploiting the traffic light’s plight. What does this do to people’s trust in politics?

Reuschenbach: Overall, we see that polarization is difficult for the political system. The many crises and the pitting of different groups against each other, which is often the case in right-wing populism, are unsettling. On the other hand, we also see a growing core electorate that supports the AfD. It will depend on whether all parties in the political center remain able to talk and debate – especially with a view to the election year of 2024.

tagesschau.de: Is there an opportunity in the crisis for the traffic light parties to move closer together?
Can the traffic light coalition recover from this? Or does she have to give up promises?

Reuschenbach: The traffic light must realize where it wants to set its accents. I doubt that the SPD and the Greens would support major social policy cuts. The aim will be to find a common financial policy line for the next two years. Those who don’t necessarily look so much at savings, but rather at the question of the added value of future investments.

The interview was conducted by Corinna Emundts and Nicole Kohnert, ARD Capital Studio. You can see more on this topic in the report from Berlin on Sunday at 6 p.m.