200 million euros. The mathematicians at the consulting firm Meyerthole Siems Kohlruss (MSK) estimate the insured damage caused by storm “Zoltan” at this sum. “They are in the range that insurers pay almost every year for a winter storm event,” says MSK managing director Onnen Siems. However, the burden is far from that caused by the storm “Zeynep”. Its insured damage amounted to around one billion euros in 2022, says Siems. For the entire year 2023, including “Zoltan”, he expects that the industry will have to bear almost four billion euros in insured losses from natural hazards. That is still less than the long-term average, which, according to MSK, is around 4.2 billion euros. But the amount is increasing.
The actuaries arrived at the 200 million estimate for “Zoltan” using complex models: They are based on data about insured buildings and their values, the paths of storms and experiences from past events. Siems also takes a relaxed view of the current risk of flooding, at least as far as the burden on insurers is concerned. “We don’t expect any exceptionally high damage,” he says. “The water levels are rising, but we are a long way from catastrophic developments like the Elbe flood in 2002.”
No company yet knows exactly how much storm Zoltan will cost individual insurers. “It’s too early for that,” was the unanimous answer to the question about the damage burden. Homeowners and drivers were particularly affected. Covered roofs, cars dented by trees and branches, drivers surprised by floodwaters whose vehicles were badly damaged.
In Troisdorf near Cologne, for example, the 20 meter high chimney of a listed coffee roasting building fell through the roof into the production hall. In Plüderhausen near Stuttgart, the storm tore off a portion of the roof of a fire station that was approximately five by six meters in size. In Hamburg, the strong northwesterly wind triggered a storm surge in which the mean tidal high was 3.33 meters above the mean high water. As a result, the streets and squares of the Hanseatic city were flooded in places. However, no exceptionally high damage from the storm surge was reported; Hamburg was well prepared.
According to MSK, reinsurers are unlikely to be burdened by “Zoltan”. The damage is not high enough for that. The companies would have to cover such sums themselves; their reinsurance protection usually only takes effect when the burden is higher.
The first natural event to cause damage nationwide in 2023
The storm hit Germany on Thursday, reports meteorologist Stephanie Fiedler. She is a professor at the Christian Albrechts University in Kiel and at the Geomar Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research and advises MSK. The center of the low has moved from the Atlantic towards Scandinavia. “The strong contrast in air pressure between the low and the high in the southwest creates high wind speeds with the northwesterly flow, which are particularly strong near the ground on the northern German coast,” says Fiedler.
Storm gusts occurred throughout Germany, even hurricane-like gusts of more than 103 kilometers per hour in the north. According to the meteorologist’s assessment, “Zoltan” did not reach the strength of a hurricane, but was a storm that caused significant disruption to traffic and numerous fire brigade operations. Even though “Zoltan” was not an exceptionally severe winter storm, it was the first natural hazard event of 2023 that caused damage throughout Germany and not just in one region.