“Let’s not take this risk of jumping into the void, of parachuting without a parachute.” Gabriel Attal castigated the programs of the National Rally and the Popular Front this Thursday morning during a press conference, evoking “carnage for our economy” in the event of victory in the legislative elections. Once again, the Prime Minister and the presidential camp pose as defenders of “budgetary seriousness” in the face of the risk of “economic chaos”. But can this argument still hold at a time when the public debt is already soaring?
“Crazy” programs
Since the start of the campaign, Macronists have criticized the overly expensive programs of the New Popular Front and the National Rally. Emmanuel Macron thus criticized the “100 billion euros” in additional public deficits per year, which the RN project would constitute, taking up the costing of their 2022 presidential program by the Montaigne Institute, a liberal think tank. The one on the left is encrypted at “286 billion euros and one million two hundred thousand jobs destroyed” by the Renaissance party.
“France’s budgetary room for maneuver is zero,” recalled Bruno Le Maire on Thursday during a grand oral presentation to the bosses. The Minister of the Economy has criticized “delusional programs which are out of step with the situation of public finances”. While the public debt now amounts to more than 3,000 billion euros, he warned against the risk of France being “put under supervision” in the event of a victory for the “extremes”.
“We have a program, they have a track record”
But on this subject of “budgetary seriousness”, the macronie is now sent back to its own balance sheet. “We have no lessons to learn in this area from a government which has worsened the deficits since 2017 and increased precariousness in the country,” replies Julien Odoul, outgoing RN deputy for Yonne. “We have a program, they have a record,” also scathes communist senator Ian Brossat. “We are committed to investing to revive the economy. It is the opposite policy of the Macronists, who ruined the country to benefit only a small minority, as with this aid of 200 billion euros to companies without any compensation, including those of the CAC40,” adds this figure of the Popular Front.
Faced with attacks from the presidential camp, a press conference by the left-wing coalition is however planned for Friday in order to quantify all the measures. On the side of the National Rally, costly elements of the program have been postponed, such as the repeal of the pension reform, the abolition of VAT on “essential products” or the end of income tax for under 30 years old. Jordan Bardella also indicated that he would launch an “audit of public finances” in the event of accession to Matignon. As if to better underline the economic mismanagement of those in power.
Promises and savings to be found
“If there are any who are credible, it’s us,” argued Gabriel Attal this Thursday. “While the other blocks only have taxes on their lips, we are making a commitment to include in the law a golden budgetary rule: no tax increases whatever happens,” insisted the tenant of Matignon. But the Macronists also promised to eliminate notary fees for first-time buyers or to expand the Macron bonus. Not obvious (impossible?) campaign promises to keep when the executive already wants to make 40 billion euros in savings in two years to maintain the budgetary milestone of 3% deficit in 2027.
This Wednesday, the European Commission opened the way to procedures for excessive public deficits against seven EU countries, including France. Whoever the Prime Minister is appointed to Matignon at the beginning of July, he will have to convince Brussels to give him room to maneuver if he wants to implement his program.