Infratest dimap election research: “We don’t do politics”

Why, even after 16 years Merkel, there is hardly any change in mood, who scores with topics and who scores with heads – and what role surveys play before elections: Infratest-dimap managing director Siegel im tagesschau.de-Interview.

tagesschau.de: What are the particular problems that pollsters face before this federal election?

Nico Siegel: There was a lot of movement on the Sunday issue, in the Union, SPD and Greens. A few days before the election we will have another federal election for the first time since 2005, in which it is open who will cross the finish line as the strongest political force. That was not the case in 2009, 2013 and 2017. This is a particular challenge for pollsters.

tagesschau.de: After 16 years of Merkel, are we no longer used to such political mood swings?

Seal: Overall, volatility tends to increase, which has to do with people’s decline in party affiliation, among other things. Fewer people than 20, 30 or 40 years ago are strongly committed core voters of a party. This helps create more potential for change. This year there is also the fact that the incumbent, who is no longer running, was a key trump card of the Union in the past election campaigns. We have a new candidate field for the Chancellery. With the negative punch lines at Baerbock and Laschet in this election campaign, this caused additional mood swings.

tagesschau.de: Less party affiliation, more swing voters – it doesn’t make work easier for election researchers …

Seal: Declining party affiliation is a long-term process. The public opinion polls can deal with this better than with unforeseen, rather shock-like upheavals. It is important to choose the indicators carefully. So: Don’t just ask: “What would you vote if there were general elections on Sunday?” But also: “What other party can you imagine? How certain is the decision? Is there a long-term party affiliation?” Then certain results can also be better classified.

tagesschau.de: How high is the uncertainty factor due to the undecided?

Seal: In the current pre-election survey, we measured a proportion of mid-30 percent of undecided voters. That is almost the level of 2013. Due to the very high percentage of postal votes this time, the percentage of undecided votes did not increase any further shortly before the election.

Followers and pity

tagesschau.de: Do pollsters influence voting decisions? Keyword: follower effect. Accordingly, one would like to be one of the winners and therefore tend towards the strongest party.

Seal: We don’t do politics. And our area code surveys are not predictions. We provide reliable information and help to classify it. Of course, there can be follow-up effects, as well as opposing pity effects or tactical voting, such as voice splitting. But the majority of those eligible to vote do not use polls to vote tactically, but to get an idea of ​​the political mood in the country. Representative surveys are essential for this. They represent a key source of information in liberal democracies.

tagesschau.de: Before the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt in June, some institutes were quite wrong …

Seal: If institutes, as in the case of Saxony-Anhalt, paint the picture of a head-to-head race on the day of the election or shortly before and mislead the public, I think that is very problematic. Infratest dimap does not publish any polls on election day or shortly before for good reason. We publish our last pre-election poll one and a half weeks before the election date and, above all, make it clear that it is not an election forecast.

Economic policy important for union supporters

tagesschau.de: In previous federal elections, the fight against unemployment and stimulating the economy often played a central role. How important are economic factors for the voting decision this time around?

Seal: In addition to social policy and the environment and climate, the economy and work will definitely be among the issues that shape the voting decision for a significant proportion of the electorate. Economic policy plays a bigger role among Union supporters, social justice among SPD supporters, and – unsurprisingly – the environment and climate among the Greens. At the moment, however, the issue of unemployment does not have great binding force, but the situation on the labor market in Germany is much more relaxed than at the end of the 1990s and the beginning of the 2000s.

tagesschau.de: How do the electorate rate their own economic situation – after a year and a half of a pandemic? And what effects does that have on voting decisions?

Seal: In the 2017 federal election, almost 80 percent perceived their own economic situation as good or very good. This value is falling noticeably as a result of Corona. And: As in the run-up to the 2013 and 2017 elections, there is great dissatisfaction with the distribution of economic prosperity.

tagesschau.de: So redistribution is an issue with which parties can score points in this election campaign?

Seal: The SPD, for example, relies on the minimum wage of twelve euros, which has a greater leverage effect, especially in the eastern German states. But the Left Party and the Greens are also strongly focused on social justice.

Climate protection is no longer an exclusive green issue

tagesschau.de: How important is the climate issue really for the voting decision?

Seal: It is an important topic, but the majority do not base their voting decisions on this topic alone. Especially since environmental and climate protection is no longer a unique selling point for the Greens. Without a doubt, the Greens focus most consistently on the subject of the environment and climate. But the SPD also speaks of a socio-ecological renewal of the market economy. And representatives of the Union and FDP are also campaigning for more climate protection. Apart from the AfD, there is no party that has not made it its mission to pave the way for a climate-friendly industrial location in Germany in the future.

Reforms are almost always arduous

tagesschau.de: Do Germans like radical change, for example in terms of climate protection?

Seal: The electorate is differently willing to reform, according to topics and supporters. When it comes to the welfare state, wages and pensions, the majority prefer security, if then manageable reform steps, no radical policy change, and certainly not towards the dismantling of the welfare state. When it comes to climate and digitalization, there is a higher level of acceptance for far-reaching change, especially among younger people. The political system in Germany is rightly called “negotiating democracy”. Reforms are almost always very arduous. They can only be achieved through broad compromises, because we are dealing with coalitions, with federalism, with institutions based on social partnerships.

tagesschau.de: But after 16 years Merkel should actually have a desire for something new, for change …

Seal: In parts of the electorate there is also this mood of change. For the first time since 1969, then the SPD, there is again a party with the Greens that wants to initiate a far-reaching social transformation. And the Greens are likely to surpass their 2017 election results by far. But in times of great uncertainty, many people have a strong need for stability. This also explains the high approval ratings for Olaf Scholz: He stands for competence and reforms in comprehensible steps.

East-West electoral differences

tagesschau.de: Even more than 30 years after German unification, East and West still choose very differently. Why?

Seal: Because the problems are still fundamentally different. People are migrating from some structurally weak regions in the east, unemployment is higher there, the infrastructure – including the social one – is worse than in the prosperous regions, which are mostly in the west. Such objective differences, but also subjective experiences, shape attitudes towards the political system and the parties.

tagesschau.de: Parties or people: what role do the minds play in this election campaign?

Seal: In the election campaign, the heads play a major role, also because the incumbent is no longer running. When it comes to voting, it looks different for many people. We have long observed that supporters of the left and the Greens in particular are more inclined to choose parties and topics. In recent years, the Union and the SPD were most likely to escape the downward trend in individual elections in state elections if they were able to contest the election campaign with convincing minds in government responsibility. We will then see from Sunday evening whether this will also be the case in these federal elections.