It should be a dazzling premiere: With a lot of fanfare, Hamburg wants to unlock the future on rails in October. For the first time, several S-Bahn trains will roll through a German city with passengers under computer control. Start off, brake, stop – it is no longer the engine driver, but digital technology that brings passengers to their destination. On a 23-kilometer pilot route, four trains are to show what is technically feasible on the railways as part of a global mobility congress.
Actually, this should only be the harbinger of a renovation in the whole country. According to plans by the federal government, thousands of kilometers of rail network and many vehicles will be upgraded in digital form by 2030, and then by 2040 at the latest the entire 33,000-kilometer network. Only with the 32 billion euro plan can the major goals of the federal government be met by rail. The number of passengers is expected to double by 2030 so that Germany can achieve its climate targets.
After all, the network is reaching its limits in many places. At rail hubs such as Mannheim, Cologne or Frankfurt there is simply no more traffic with conventional means. Digital upgrade could change that. Because authorities trust technology more than people, the digitally controlled train would run at a closer pace. Up to 35 percent more trains could be on the same network – without the company having to lay new tracks.
But instead of anticipation, frustration is currently growing up and down the country. The most important and most expensive modernization project in railway history, which runs under the title “Digital Rail Germany”, is threatened with significant delays. “To be clear: If we do not move much faster with the digital rail, then the strengthening of the rail and thus the climate goals in the transport sector cannot be achieved,” says Heike van Hoorn, managing director of the German Transport Forum (DVF) Süddeutsche Zeitung. “It is time that the federal government followed up its objectives with the corresponding deeds.”
The DVF is one of the most important trade associations and an important voice in the transport sector. The who’s who of traffic managers sits in his presidium, including the head of Deutsche Bahn, Richard Lutz, but also the heads of car companies, airlines and the ADAC.
So far, only one percent of the network has been upgraded
According to its own statements, the government started the planned nationwide introduction of the train control system ETCS – the basis for digital traffic – in 2015. She has not come very far in the past six years. According to current information, only 340 kilometers have been converted – that is, one percent of the network. Van Hoorn makes it clear what slow pace means: “The digitization of the rail is the prerequisite for us to be able to achieve the goal of doubling the number of passengers and more goods on the rails by 2030.”
Other insiders are also sounding the alarm. There is a lack of effective leadership and planning by the Federal Ministry of Transport from Andreas Scheuer (CSU), authorities, ministries and companies say in unison. Traffic forecasts are out of date, budget issues have not been clarified. An example is the upgrade of the vehicle fleet, which must be able to receive the signals from the intelligent network. However, there are still neither specifications as to what exactly should be built into trains, nor general support measures. “The financial question is crucial for the conversion,” says Peter Westenberger, managing director of the European Railways Network, the association of private freight railways. “The time is running out.” In view of the tight margins, the industry could not manage the restructuring on its own.
However, if vehicles are not equipped with the technology during manufacture, the conversion will be time-consuming and expensive. For retrofitting, a vehicle is withdrawn from circulation for two years, while installation ex works takes only two months. Retrofitting would also be significantly more expensive. Because around 10,000 rail vehicles need new technology, a lot is at stake. Years on schedule and billions for the federal budget.
The Ministry of Transport refers to a model project in Stuttgart
The industry has long been calling for quick decisions, but little has happened. The Ministry of Transport rejects the allegations. Criticism that its own department is slowing down the project is not even known in the ministry, says a spokesman. The BMVI is making progress. There is a model project in Stuttgart. A first digital node is actually to be built around the main train station there by 2025. But so far nothing more than such pilot projects has become concrete.
That is far too little for the opposition. “So far, only an absurdly small part of the rail network has been digitally upgraded,” says Green Party leader Anton Hofreiter Süddeutsche Zeitung. “It is absolutely necessary to massively accelerate the expansion now.” In order for the trains to be able to travel digitally, not only test fields are needed, but entire corridors. “Trains have to come from A to B. Nothing else will get us anywhere,” complains Hofreiter. “The next government must finally make decisions quickly.”
The railway does not comment on the criticism, but also indicates that it is also pushing for an acceleration: “We are in good talks with the federal government about bringing the digitization of the rail forward from 2040 to 2035,” says a spokeswoman.
The industry also rejects the fact that it would be a side effect of the renovation to take power away from the strike drivers. Engine drivers would still be needed on board – at least to monitor the technology and to be able to intervene in an emergency. During the pilot project in Hamburg, too, they should be careful in the cockpit that the technology doesn’t make any mistakes.