In Granada, Spain, the EU members are discussing current controversial issues again today. In addition to migration policy, the focus is also on looking into the future and towards a potentially significantly larger EU.
Despite the difficult agreement among the EU countries on the asylum crisis regulation, Rome continues to speak poorly of Berlin. It’s about German financial support for non-governmental organizations that bring boat migrants ashore. From the perspective of the Italian right-wing nationalist government, the sea rescue workers are counteracting the fight against irregular migration across the Mediterranean.
Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will probably ask Chancellor Olaf Scholz about this on the sidelines of the informal EU summit and will probably not want to go home empty-handed – just as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did on Thursday with his call for more support against Russian missile attacks winter months.
Scholz does not see the asylum package at risk
Despite the differences with Rome, Scholz does not see the agreement on the asylum package at risk. He emphasized on Thursday that the understanding between the countries has so far made progress that many cannot yet measure.
What is meant is the long back and forth between the EU interior ministers, who had made little progress in countless meetings for years. The Asylum and Migration Pact was restarted by the EU Commission in September 2020 when talks were hopelessly deadlocked.
Something has actually been achieved in one crucial point: since the countries agreed on all the individual parts of the reform, negotiations with the EU Parliament on the final version of the entire package can begin.
Time is running out
Nevertheless, time is running out. The EU wants to show determination that it can solve one of the biggest problems before the upcoming European elections in 2024. The moderate parties and governments want to prove that they are capable of acting and thus take the wind out of the sails of right-wing populists. But negotiations with parliament usually take months, so things are tight. Disturbances that try to question the previous agreement have an irritating effect.
It is conceivable that Poland and Hungary want to block a summit declaration on migration. They had already not supported the agreement on the crisis regulation and feel ignored in the asylum debate – regardless of the fact that no unanimous resolutions were required.
The meeting in Granada should not only be about the asylum package, which will only be fully effective in a few years. It is also expected that the states will use the informal summit to discuss further current developments in migration. The agreement with Tunisia is likely to play a role. Recently there had been doubts as to whether the autocratically ruled country could even be a reliable partner. The EU is offering the country one billion euros in financial aid and is counting on Tunisia to help stop boat crossings to Italy.
Looking towards a larger EU in the future
In addition, EU Council President Charles Michel wants to talk to the states about how the EU should be made ready to accept new members. Specifically: What reforms would be necessary if the European Union were to consist of 30 or more members – those like Ukraine or Moldova, which are hoping to open accession negotiations at the end of the year. And at some point later also Georgia or the Western Balkan states.
Because with more members, many things would become more difficult, as the migration debate already shows. Unanimous decisions would become less likely. In this respect, several countries, especially Germany, are proposing to switch more to majority decisions. Berlin and Paris have commissioned scientists to submit proposals. Your core message: Unanimity only on key issues, more flexibility in all other areas.
There is a threat of a Europe of different people Speeds?
This could lead to a Europe of different speeds. Countries like Poland and Hungary would no longer be able to stop states that are committed to greater European integration. At the same time, Poland and Hungary could possibly retreat to core areas in which they still want to act in a European manner. That is their stated goal anyway.
It is also about how the EU institutions can remain functional, how large the EU Commission can still be, which is likely to be inefficient with more than 30 members, as is an EU Parliament with too many representatives.
The problem, however, is that many countries feel taken by surprise by the reform debate. One thing that is causing irritation is that EU Council President Michel is considering an enlargement round for 2030. However, some countries are demanding that it is not the calendar, but rather the progress in the accession negotiations that determines when the EU accepts new members.