Posted Feb 1 2022 at 9:46Updated Feb 1. 2022 at 02:42 PM
After two months of stability at 2.8% , inflation resumed its ascent. In January, consumer prices rose by 2.9% over twelve rolling months in France, according to provisional data published on Tuesday by INSEE. “A figure a little higher than our forecast”, recognizes Julien Pouget, chief economist of the Institute. In question: “the new acceleration of oil prices and perhaps also less marked discounts than expected during the sales”.
In fact, the increase energy prices still explains half of this inflationary surge. While economists were expecting a lull at the start of the year, they jumped 19.7% over one year, driven by the runaway price of Brent which has reached up to 90 dollars a barrel in recent days.
“Over the recent period, the new element is that all energy products are evolving together on the rise and brutally”, recognized, a few days ago, the director general of INSEE, Jean-Luc Tavernier, in a interview with “Echoes” .
Food products, services…
But now, energy is no longer the only item of expenditure to cost more. Over one year, the prices of food products – a very sensitive item for households – increased by 1.5%. This increase is mainly due to fresh products (+3.6%). Those of services jumped 2%. On the other hand, under the effect of the sales, the rise in the prices of manufactured products slowed down, to +0.6%, against +1.2% in December.
“The price reductions granted during this promotion period have mitigated inflation in January”, underlines Stéphane Colliac, economist at BNP Paribas, who recalls that “manufactured goods represent around 25% of the index of Insee”. But he warns, “from February, inflation will accelerate. »
The rises will spread
While in 2021, inflation was concentrated in energy, the surge in commodity prices and production prices in industry will spread to food products and manufactured goods. Thus, “the prices of food products (18% of the index) would increase by 3.2% by the end of June compared to the end of 2021”, estimates Stéphane Coulliac.
In reality, today, no one knows what the duration and magnitude of the “inflation hump” will be. Everything will depend on the evolution of world energy prices, the latter being themselves dependent on geopolitical tensions and decisions by OPEC in particular. And other factors will be decisive: the persistence or not of shortages, imbalances in raw materials, disruptions in industrial value chains and in maritime transport.
Purchasing power, central theme of the campaign
Some experts are already warning against inflation that would ultimately be higher than expected. This is the case of Charles-Henri Colombier, economist at Rexecode, convinced that the forecasts made at the end of 2021 must be reassessed. we would not be far from 3%”, he declared in mid-January during his hearing by the Senate Finance Committee.
These price increases fuel wage demands. “In France, wage increases should follow inflation in 2022,” say the economists of Euler Hermes in a recent note. “All those whose incomes will not be indexed will be the big losers from the rise in prices,” said economist Philippe Crevel. In the programs of presidential candidates, the question of salaries is also beginning to impose itself.
Almost two months from ballot , this new surge in prices should fuel the debate on purchasing power. First concern of the French, in the OpinionWay – Kéa Partners barometer for “Les Echos” and Classical Radio, this theme has become central since the fall of 2021.