Usually people find out what the mood is like in the country from the newspapers. This is no longer the case in Turkey, with its media that have been brought into line: Citizens who are critical of the government use social media to find out more. On YouTube, for example, there are interviews in which young journalists or activists question people. The answers often sound similar: People suffer from a lack of jobs and rising prices. A farmer told the one-man Youtube channel “Ilave-TV” from Antalya: “I need diesel and fertilizer to produce a sack of wheat. But they are getting more and more expensive. The nation will only get better when this government is in place.” is away.”
Others expressed a similar opinion: A woman said of the head of state Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who was apparently little loved by her: “He gives us a teaspoon and then takes a tablespoon for us. I get up in the morning with the question of what will become more expensive today.” The Youtube reporter Hasan Köksoy from Ilave-TV, who is in a lot of trouble with the judiciary because of his work, is used to such comments. “I shot 900 street interviews,” he told the SZ. “And people always end up with economic misery in the end.”
The local currency, the lira, has lost around 40 percent of its value since 2021
That is also obvious. The list of undesirable economic developments that the Turks feel every day is getting longer and longer: Inflation is 36.8 percent, experts predict an increase to 40 or more. At the beginning of January, the prices for electricity and gas rose unusually sharply, and private individuals and companies are now paying 50 percent more. Local public transport will also be a good third more expensive, as will petrol, diesel and taxis. The lira has not stabilized since its multiple crashes in recent months, the local currency has lost around 40 percent of its value since the beginning of 2021, and the import of foreign products and goods is becoming significantly more expensive.
President Erdoğan knows that this will further endanger his already melted popular support. At the moment, his ruling party, the AKP, could not win a parliamentary election. He too would have to fear a vote in a presidential election: he has lost his solid lead in the polls. Erdoğan, who defiantly sticks to his economic model of the lowest key interest rates, is now responding with targeted benefits. He has significantly increased the minimum wage, civil servants ‘salaries and public servants’ pensions. The president serves his potential electorate: the AKP finds its supporters in the lower and middle classes, and a good 40 percent of Turkish workers live on the minimum wage.
“I get up in the morning with the question of what’s going to be more expensive today” – that’s what many people ask, for example at the street market in Ankara.
(Photo: Cagla Gurdugan / REUTERS)
The economic situation gives the opposition the chance to find its topic. Even if Erdogan’s peculiar economic model should prove successful – which according to experts is absolutely unlikely – the price increase will not end overnight. The opposition can therefore shoot itself in before the parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for summer 2023.
The tone – in political debates in Turkey is already far rougher than in Germany – is already intensifying. Erdoğan called the leading opposition politician Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu a “bandit” and threatens the opposition with violence if they organize street protests. “Didn’t you see July 15th?”, He asked in a speech, referring to the failed military coup of July 15th, 2016. “We as the People’s Alliance will drift you before us. And to where you belong. ” Erdoğan called on the people for help during the attempted coup in 2016. His supporters had quickly put an end to the coup attempt, in which a total of 250 people died, and beat some of the soldiers involved to death on the streets.
The head of state knows that he can rely on the hard core of his supporters; many of them are said to have been armed by the government after the coup. The opposition accused Erdoğan of stirring up a “civil war mood”. Kılıçdaroğlu, who as head of the CHP is the leader of the strongest opposition party, tweeted that he only had an eye on his falling polls: “Today you officially started to issue civil war slogans,” tweeted Kılıçdaroğlu to Erdoğan. At the same time, he called on the CHP party members not to take to the streets, but “to wait patiently for the elections”. Erdoğan wants to provoke violence. And Meral Akşener, head of the opposition Iyi party, sarcastically advised Erdoğan to see a psychiatrist: he was only talking crazy stuff.
The opposition has found its topic – and must fear attacks
This is how the opposition, which calls for early elections, finds its topic. At the same time, she must fear that the government will resort to the harshest antidotes. For days there has been an unproven accusation that the Istanbul city administration employs up to 500 people who are close to terrorist groups such as the Kurdish underground group PKK. So far, no names have been given, let alone evidence. Nevertheless, the government has openly threatened that this could lead to the impeachment of Istanbul’s mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu. Erdoğan’s unofficial coalition partner Devlet Bahçeli has already spoken of a lawsuit against the OB.
Imamoğlu belongs to the opposition CHP and is one of the possible candidates for the presidential election. His impeachment would deprive the opposition of one of its most important leaders. The threat is reminiscent of the government’s actions against the HDP party, which is also opposition. Many of the mayors appointed by the pro-Kurdish party were dismissed from office because of alleged terrorist connections. Instead of elected, Ankara-appointed representatives rule. At the same time, numerous HDP politicians have been charged and imprisoned.
Istanbul is a stronghold of the opposition; Here Imamoğlu had won a sensational victory over Erdoğan’s AKP in 2019. Erdoğan will hardly be able to win elections without bringing Istanbul back under the control of his ruling party, the AKP.