Status: 01.10.2021 1:41 p.m.
Inflation in the euro area rose to its highest level in 13 years in September. Above all, drastically increased energy prices are responsible for the plus.
Consumer prices rose by 3.4 percent in September compared to the same period last year. This was announced by the Eurostat statistical office. In August the rate was 3.0 percent. Economists had only expected an increase to 3.3 percent. The last time inflation was higher was in September 2008.
Energy rose particularly sharply in September, which was 17.4 percent more expensive than a year earlier. Industrial goods prices rose 2.1 percent. Food and luxury foods also cost 2.1 percent more than a year ago. Services were 1.7 percent more expensive.
The core inflation rate excluding energy and food also rose. It increased from 1.6 percent in August to 1.9 percent. Economists expected this. Core inflation is considered by many economists to be a more reliable measure of inflation because it tends to fluctuate less.
High inflation in the Baltic states
Yesterday the Federal Statistical Office announced that inflation in Germany is expected to reach 4.1 percent in September. This is the highest rate of inflation since the end of 1993. This puts Germany noticeably above the average for the euro countries.
Life became even more expensive for consumers in the Baltic states of Estonia and Lithuania: According to Eurostat, inflation there is expected to be over six percent in September. So far, rising energy prices have had the least impact on Malta: At 0.7 percent, inflation there is well below the two percent mark that the European Central Bank (ECB) is aiming for.
High point in November?
Christoph Weil, an analyst at Commerzbank, predicts that the inflation rate in the euro zone will peak at around 3.5 percent in November. “At the beginning of next year, it will give way again when the lowering of the German VAT in the second half of 2020 no longer distorts the inflation rate upwards, the corona effects subside and the supply bottlenecks are gradually overcome.”
For experts, the future direction of consumer prices depends above all on wage developments: “If the higher consumer prices were to be reflected in employee wages, there would be the risk of a wage-price spiral,” comments Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at VP Bank. There is still no sign of this, but the central bankers are no longer quite as relaxed as they were a few weeks ago, says Gitzel.
“It is a serious inflation situation when second-round effects take hold,” argues Alexander Krüger, chief economist at Bankhaus Lampe. Above all, this includes wage growth. “So far, however, there has been no sign of this,” says Commerzbank expert Weil.
Inflation in the eurozone at its highest level since 2008
Jakob Mayr, ARD Brussels, October 1, 2021 1:40 p.m.