Industrialized and emerging countries: double plastic consumption by 2050?

Status: 02/27/2023 1:31 p.m

Plastic waste is already polluting the oceans. An initiative warns of a massive increase in consumption in the G20 countries if the international community does not get the problem under control.

According to a forecast, plastic consumption in the leading industrialized and emerging countries (G20) will almost double by the middle of this century without further legally binding countermeasures. This is the result of a study by the “Back to Blue” initiative. “Back to Blue” is a research group of the think tank Economist Impact and the Nippon Foundation.

Existing programs to encourage recycling or reduce the consumption of single-use plastic only scratch the surface, the initiative criticizes. A comprehensive and legally binding global agreement to curb plastic consumption is needed.

Negotiations for a worldwide agreement

In November, the United Nations began negotiations in Uruguay on an agreement to combat plastic pollution – with the aim of drawing up a legally binding treaty by the end of next year. Up to 175 countries took part in the talks.

If the negotiations fail, annual plastics production in the G20 countries could increase to 451 million tons by 2050 at current growth rates, estimates “Back to Blue”. That would be an increase of almost three quarters compared to 2019.

“One must not give in to the illusion that the contract negotiations will be anything but difficult and treacherous,” said the research group. “The chances of failure – not just no deal, but one that’s too weak to reverse the plastic tide – are significant.”

Germany ahead in recycling

The initiative calls for a stronger ban on single-use plastic along with higher production taxes. In addition, there should be mandatory regulations that make companies responsible for the entire life cycle of their products, including recycling and disposal. These measures could limit annual consumption to 325 million tons by 2050, according to Back to Blue. However, that would still be an increase of a quarter compared to 2019 and corresponds to the amount of 238 million filled garbage trucks.

The G20 countries that have yet to introduce a national ban on single-use plastic products include Brazil, the United States, Indonesia and Turkey, according to the report. Many single-use plastic products such as drinking straws and single-use tableware have been banned in the EU since July 2021. Germany, on the other hand, is playing a pioneering role in recycling: in the “Plastics Management Index” published by “Back to Blue”, the Federal Republic ranks first, followed by Japan and France.

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