Status: 22.11.2022 09:59 a.m
Three-quarters of industrial companies have saved gas even without major cuts in their production. Now, however, the scope is limited. Overall, the industry expects only mini growth this year.
According to a survey by the ifo Institute, a large majority of German industrial companies have so far managed to save gas without cutting back on production. However, many companies have already done what is possible in this regard. Karen Pittel, head of the ifo Center for Energy, Climate and Resources, said that the scope for further savings without a drop in production seems to be increasingly exhausted.
Significant differences between sectors
Nearly 60 percent of industrial firms surveyed as part of the monthly business survey said they needed gas for production – and of these, three-quarters have saved gas without curbing production. “This high proportion is gratifying, but the differences between the sectors are considerable,” says Pittel.
The results did indeed vary greatly from sector to sector: while more than 80 percent of the companies in the automotive and mechanical engineering industries managed not to reduce their production, in the chemical industry it was only 60 percent. A total of 14 percent of the companies have already had to reduce their production in order to use less gas. Another 7.4 percent have not yet taken any measures to save gas.
In addition, according to the survey, which included several thousand companies, the potential for further gas savings is limited for many companies: around 39 percent said they could further reduce their consumption without affecting production. 41 percent, on the other hand, would have to produce less, twelve percent would even stop production completely. This applies in particular to food and feed manufacturers, producers of printed matter and manufacturers of metal products.
BDI only expects a small plus for 2022
Meanwhile, German industry expects only a slight increase in production this year due to the energy crisis and delivery bottlenecks. It should only increase by 0.25 percent compared to the previous year, according to the forecast published today by the Federation of German Industries (BDI). For comparison: in 2021 it was still enough for an increase of 4.7 percent. “The outlook for 2023 is bleak,” it said at the same time looking ahead. The more energy-intensive industries are particularly under pressure.
The BDI is also pessimistic when it comes to exports. Adjusted for inflation, they should only increase by a total of 2.5 percent in the year that is coming to an end, after plus 9.7 percent last year. “Supply bottlenecks have significantly affected German foreign trade,” it said. “An additional burden is the increased uncertainty caused by the outbreak of war in Ukraine.”
At least when it comes to supply bottlenecks, there are signs of “some relaxation”. According to the ifo Institute, the shortage of materials in industry fell slightly in October. 63.8 percent of the companies surveyed by the Munich researchers reported bottlenecks, after 65.8 percent in September.