Status: 02/25/2023 04:08 a.m
The federal government’s interest in India is growing: Starting today, Chancellor Scholz will be visiting the country. In addition to economic issues, it should also be about India’s attitude to the war in Ukraine.
For months there has been prominent air traffic on the long-haul routes from Berlin to New Delhi. In December, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock in India. Now, on the anniversary of the Russian war of aggression, Finance Minister Christian Lindner is already in India. Now Chancellor Olaf Scholz is on his way.
On the one hand, India’s G20 presidency is attracting German politics to South Asia, on the other hand, Germany is trying to win over India as a supporter of the European line in the Ukraine war. India has just abstained from the UN resolution again. It called for an immediate withdrawal of Russian troops.
“Europe must grow out of the pattern of thought”
A quote from the Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar shows how India assesses the current situation. He recently demanded: “Europe must grow out of the paradigm that Europe’s problems are the world’s problems, but the world’s problems are not Europe’s problems.” That summarizes the basic problem of India and many other countries of the Global South with the European attitude.
Chancellor Scholz took up the quote in his speech at the Munich Security Conference. There’s something to that sentence. But in order to be credible and to achieve something as a European or North American in Jakarta, New Delhi or Pretoria, it is not enough to invoke common values. This would require honest engagement with the concerns of these countries as a basic requirement for joint action.
Communicating with each other on an equal footing – this is how the federal government wants to deal with India. This is probably one of the reasons why Scholz invited countries such as India, Indonesia and South Africa to the G7 summit at Schloss Elmau last summer.
India chooses a position between the blocs
But it is not always easy to understand the Indian perspective. Because the Russian-Indian relations are still close: India buys Russian oil and gas on the world market. In addition, the US think tank “Stimson Center” estimates that about 85 percent of Indian weapon systems are of Russian or even Soviet origin.
“In addition, Russia is India’s most reliable partner in the UN Security Council, which we tend to overlook,” says Christian Wagner, Asia expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. “Because an issue like the Kashmir conflict can always come up in the Security Council, and then the Indians need Russia.”
The chairman of the German-Indian parliamentary group in the Bundestag, Ralph Brinkhaus, criticizes this proximity to Russia. He believes that one must repeatedly point out that India, too, would have an interest in the fact that the common rules-based world has now been violated by the Russians. “If Russia prevails, it will also be the same in other conflicts and also in the Indian environment.”
Yet India chooses the position between the blocs. A change in this foreign policy is not in sight, says Wagner: “The Ukraine war is a geopolitical moment for India that it can use because it is both expanding its relations with Russia and on the other hand the West is courting India.” The rise of India is in Europe’s interest as a counterweight to China.
“India as an Economic Engine”
India’s economic rise is a long-standing expectation that could now come true. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) speaks of India as a “ray of hope”. Economic growth of 6.1 percent is expected for this year. In the following year even 6.8 percent. According to the IMF forecast, India could be the fourth largest economy in the world in 2025-2026, overtaking Germany.
“The country has an incredible amount of potential and can also become a locomotive of the global economy,” says Professor Nils Stieglitz, President of the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management. The private university focuses on German-Indian economic relations. Stieglitz believes that many pro-business reforms have been implemented under Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
He sees challenges in fighting corruption and reducing bureaucracy and protectionism. “That’s why the free trade agreement is very important, both for the EU and for India.” Trade talks have been on hold for a long time. The EU and India decided last year to resume this. A free trade agreement should be in place by the end of 2023.
Billion deals with extra wishes
On the Chancellor’s trip to India, a multi-billion dollar submarine business is also to be promoted. India wants to buy six conventional submarines worth 4.9 billion euros. The German ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) is one of only two international bidders for the project.
India is considered a difficult partner in armaments cooperation. The government insists on manufacturing weapons domestically. The submarine deal would also see a foreign company entering into a partnership with an Indian company.
India and the German shortage of skilled workers
India is expected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country in April. A potential that has also long been known in Germany. At the end of 2022, Germany concluded a mobility agreement with India. “In this way, more Indian specialists can be recruited,” says India expert Wagner. This is particularly interesting in the area of high-quality services, for example in the software industry.
Autocratic tendencies put a strain on Indo-German relations
Although India is often called the world’s largest democracy, experts are worried about autocratic tendencies under Modi’s Hindu nationalist government, according to Wagner: “Restrictions on freedom of the press and freedom of expression, a reduction in the separation of powers and a downgrade in various democracy indices. ” Violence against Muslim minorities has also increased. Recently, the search of BBC offices had also caused a stir. The station previously aired a critical documentary about Modi.
These are issues that could put a strain on the expansion of Indo-German relations. Ultimately, the geostrategic interests that Germany sees in India are currently predominant. In uncertain times, Germany is looking for new friends in the Global South, which gives German-Indian relations a new impetus.