The demographic champion will change. India is expected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country by mid-2023, according to United Nations estimates released on Wednesday. India’s population will number 1.4286 billion, compared to China’s 1.4257 billion, according to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) report on the state of world population.
China’s population shrank last year for the first time in more than six decades, official data showed earlier this year. The UNFPA report also estimates that the world’s population will have reached 8.045 billion by the same date. India has no official data on the number of its inhabitants, as it has not carried out a census since 2011.
Census delayed in India
India’s census, which only takes place once a decade, was due to take place in 2021 but had to be delayed due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Logistical obstacles and political reluctance now prevent it from taking place, and it is unlikely that this large-scale exercise will take place anytime soon.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist government has been accused by critics of deliberately delaying the census so as not to release data on sensitive issues, such as unemployment, before next year’s national elections. According to the Pew Research Center, an American think tank, the Indian population has increased by more than a billion people since 1950, the year from which the United Nations began to establish demographic data.