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Political analysts believe that another 24 months of suffering in Ukraine will put Russia’s fire out. The Avdiivkaz case: minor matter.
Avdiivka – Science agrees: There is no end in sight to the Ukraine war. For now. “The battle will continue to simmer for a long time,” said the German military historian Sönke Neitzel recently, using the image of a simmering pot on a low flame. However, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still raging in the city of Avdiivka – Vladimir Putin has now conquered the city. Apparently at a shockingly high price.
The fighting around Avdiivka in Ukraine’s annexed eastern Donetsk region earned the city the nickname “meat grinder,” a term for battlefields that cause high casualties and consume significant resources such as armored vehicles, reports now Newsweek about the fighting there. For them South German newspaper The case is clear: the capture of Avdiivka was Moscow’s greatest military success since Taking Bakhmut in May 2023 – and the result of a dramatic superiority in soldiers, artillery shells and, for the first time, in the air. A significant military victory looks different, but so does a decisive defeat.
No major decision has yet been made in Ukraine. However, it shows that the long-term strategy of Vladimir Putin’s invading army has now taken hold: to simply crush the enemy due to high numerical superiority. Using Avdiivka as an example, the German political scientist Carlo Masala explained in the Hamburger Abendblattthat Ukraine had decided to hold Avdiivka as long as possible so that Putin’s troops would be bled out as much as possible. After all, the Russians had fought doggedly for the city without it being considered to have any great tactical importance – it stands as a symbol of the mutual test of strength and currently has no significant military value, neither for the victors nor for them defeated.
The Avdiivkaz case: milestone for Putin’s plans in Ukraine
However, it measures South German newspaper of great strategic value to the city: because of its roads as well as as a railway junction. According to Ukrainian estimates, Moscow deployed around 40,000 soldiers to conquer the city. Moscow could now decide to advance on the city of Pokrovsk, 40 kilometers west of Avdiivka, or to the northwest on the central garrison town of Kramatorsk. Further north, the city of Kupyansk is also a possible target of a Russian offensive.
The Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies (RUSI) believes that Avdiivka is a significant milestone for Vladimir Putin, as its author Jack Watling writes. Russia continues to pursue its strategic goal of completely subjugating Ukraine and is convinced of victory after conquering Avdiivka. Among the terms of surrender currently proposed by Russian mediators is Ukraine’s ceding of territory already under Russian control, along with Kharkiv and some areas around Odessa. Russia is also demanding that Ukraine refrain from joining NATO and install a head of state of Russia’s choosing. Apparently Russia is letting the rest of Ukraine into the European Union in return.
Gloomy forecast: Russia and Ukraine are irreconcilable
The incompatibility of the positions of both opponents is a consensus among academics, as American political scientist John Mearsheimer told the magazine Cicero explained: Russia lacks the will to return Crimea and the four other regions in eastern Ukraine to Ukraine; But Ukraine absolutely wants these areas back. “So when you talk about Ukraine’s relations with the West and about the territorial dispute between Kiev and Moscow, you quickly realize that there is no way to reconcile the different views and conclude a meaningful peace agreement.” œ, he says – a bleak prognosis.
The Russian force has also suffered significant losses around Avdiivka, but is still increasing in size, RUSI analyzes: Even in the face of bitter resistance from the defenders, Russia knows how to hold its front line. Watling: “Units can generally be rotated out of line once they have lost up to a third of their strength, meaning they are considered ineffective. While no major offensive is currently underway, Russian units are tasked with conducting small-scale tactical attacks that inflict at least sustained casualties on Ukraine and enable Russian forces to take and hold positions, add forces, and… to achieve the old target strength again.“
Endless soldiers: Putin wants to bring 1.5 million men into arms
According to him, this fact explains the fact that Russia was able to maintain constant pressure on the city of Avdiivka for so long and ultimately successfully. Watling continues to expect a constant influx of soldiers: although the Russian military is running towards its goal, its Stü To increase the number of soldiers to 1.5 million, they appear to have come close to reaching 85 percent of their target size, claims Watling. According to him, the Kremlin expects to maintain this level of recruitment until 2025 can.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) considered the decisive factor for the victory at Avdiivka that Russia had regained air sovereignty, i.e. had succeeded for the first time in the two years of the war in establishing superiority in the air with fighter jets and helicopters and in firing up well-fortified Ukrainian positions before advancing its troops. The RUSI calculates the total losses of the Russian aircraft crews at 159 soldiers, which should be viewed as a serious loss of competence given the unevenness of the flying hours within the Russian squadrons. Nevertheless, the Russian Aerospace Forces could continue to cause devastating casualties among Ukrainian forces with standoff munitions such as glide bombs.
After Russia began to approach Avdiivka in October 2023, indications grew day by day that the defenders were apparently running out of soldiers, ammunition, drones and anti-aircraft systems. Tanks that could have fired 120 grenades a day in the Ukrainian counteroffensive in autumn 2022 only had a maximum of 20 by the end of 2023; according to that Kyiv Independent Artillerymen are currently reporting that instead of 40 grenades they can only fire one.
Armada like in Soviet times: Ukraine prevents the creation of a Russian tank army
The facts about the production competence of the Russian arms industry are rare, and the speculation is even wilder, for example when it comes to the construction of new tanks: Just in March last year, Putin announced the production of 1,600 new tanks. But more important for Western observers: Russia is currently modernizing many of its old T-80 tanks. “Several important conclusions can be drawn from this, such as: Due to the war with Ukraine, Russian production is currently unable to meet the needs of tanks for the Russian army,“ claim Bulgarian military observers. According to the Bulgarians, Russia is trying by hook or by crook to return to the Soviet concept of a fleet of many thousands of tanks. The fact that Russia has incurred such immense losses around Avdiivka suggests that the Ukrainian defenders can effectively torpedo Russia’s build-up of a Soviet-like military force.
What in turn puts the Western powers under enormous pressure to act: Russian determination relies on the trust in the hesitation of Western countries to supply Ukraine more than before – which leads Jack Watling from RUSI to the thesis. “If Ukraine’s partners continue to provide its army with sufficient ammunition and training support to mitigate Russian attacks in 2024, it is unlikely that Russia will achieve significant success in 2025. If Russia sees no prospect of success in 2025 due to its inability to improve the quality of forces for offensive operations, this means that it will have difficulty forcing Kiev to surrender by 2026.“
Watling believes: After 2026, the mutual attrition will end with Russia’s fighting power extinguished. (Karsten Hinzmann)