The executive intends to lower unemployment: “We must aim for an 80% employment rate in the coming years“, said the Minister of Economy and Finance recently. PHILIPPE LOPEZ / AFP
The latter increased by 0.1 point compared to the previous quarter, national statisticians announced on Friday. This is the first increase since the third quarter of 2021.
Bad news on the employment front. In the second quarter, the unemployment rate rose slightly, by 0.1 points compared to the previous quarter, INSEE announced on Friday morning. It is now estimated at 7.2%. Despite this reversal – the first since the third quarter of 2021 – the rate remains “0.2 points below its level in the second quarter of 2022 and 3.3 points below its peak in mid-2015”, underline the national statisticians.
Shaken by the health crisis, the unemployment rate has fluctuated sharply in recent years. In regular decline between the beginning of 2018 – 9.3% – and the end of 2019 – 8.2% -, it collapsed to 7.1% in the second quarter of 2020. An artificial evolution, while the labor market was strongly affected by the confinements. It then jumped to 9%, over the following three months, before falling one point below at the end of 2020. It has since fallen gradually, falling below the 7.5% mark at the end of 2021, driven by flourishing activity, and has stagnated. since above 7%.
The lowest rate for more than 40 years
If it is almost the lowest rate for more than forty years – the second quarter of 1982 -, health crisis aside, this good score does not however satisfy the executive, who repeats at will his hope of soon to reach full employment. “We must aim for an 80% employment rate in the coming years“, thus recently affirmed the Minister of Economy and Finance, Bruno Le Maire, on the sidelines of the economic meetings of Aix-en-Provence.
The government is counting in particular on the establishment of France travail to accelerate the decline in unemployment. Still, the experts are cautious, recalling that the downturn in the economy, the rise in rates, inflation and the weakening of consumption will eventually weigh on activity and employment. In June, the Banque de France was thus counting on a rate established at 7.1% this year, before rising to 7.6% at the end of 2025. Same observation for INSEE, which expects job creations fewer by the end of 2023. “Given the expected slowdown in employment […], the unemployment rate would remain stable at 7.1% of the active population until the end of 2023”, write the statisticians, in their latest economic report. Crossing the 7% level would, in itself, be a small feat, and unheard of since François Mitterrand in 1981.