During the local elections in Turkey, the whole country is watching Istanbul. President Erdogan desperately wants to wrest the city away from the opposition. The result could have far-reaching consequences for Turkey.
Noisy loudspeaker trucks have been parked in squares and driving through the streets for weeks. Advertisements are shown on television and at rallies, accompanied by the respective campaign songs: “Is there a problem – I am Murat Kurum” and “Istanbul – again with Ekrem Imamoglu,” it says.
More than 1,000 mayors and local councilors as well as tens of thousands of local mayors are elected throughout the country. But it’s mainly about these two candidates from the AKP and CHP for the post of mayor in Istanbul.
Confirmation as mayor would increase Imamoglu’s chances of becoming a presidential candidate.
“Whoever wins Istanbul wins Turkey”
Most of the country’s economic power – and with it money – is concentrated in the megacity with its official 18 million inhabitants. In the 1990s, the mayor was Recep Tayyip Erdogan. “Whoever wins Istanbul, Turkey wins,” he once said.
However, Imamoglu from the opposition CHP won the 2019 election. If he manages to do it again, it could help the entire CHP to overtake Erdogan’s AKP in the medium term.
The president shapes the election campaign
There are enough reasons for Erdogan to get involved in the election campaign and attack Imamoglu directly: “What condition was Istanbul in when you made me your mayor?” Erdogan asks the crowd at rallies and then answers himself: “Garbage, Potholes, mud. That’s the CHP! And what changed after Imamoglu took office? Again trash, potholes and part-time work, that’s what he did!”
By “part-time work” he means that Imamoglu took care of everything possible, for example his CHP, but not enough of the city.
In the Turkish media, the person attacked turns the tables, points to the AKP’s long dominance in the city and accuses Erdogan of corruption: “We have done more in five years than they did in 25 years. They dealt with luxury apartments, they have built luxury apartments for friends and relatives, I speak clearly here.”
AKP candidate with legacy
You might think it’s about Erdogan and Imamoglu. Murat Kurum is the actual AKP candidate. He promises, for example, an earthquake-proof reconstruction of the city.
But here he is vulnerable: the so-called construction amnesty took place during his time as cities and construction minister. A number of houses that were sloppily built but still approved collapsed in the earthquake last year.
The promise of “peace and happiness”
In their election promises, Imamoglu and Kurum both advocate a socially better and fairer life in Istanbul. In the election campaign, they rely primarily on creating an atmosphere. In keeping with his slogan “Just Istanbul,” Kurum – like Erdogan – insinuates that Imamoglu has neglected the city.
At rallies he praises himself as an honest servant of the city: “Come on Istanbul, choose your city so that Istanbul is served again, finds peace and happiness. You can do it, you are brave because you are Istanbul, because you are an Istanbul citizen are.”
This catches some people. In a street poll, one man said: “Of course I’m voting for Murat Kurum. Imamoglu hasn’t done anything even though we elected him. He’s just putting on a show.” A woman, on the other hand, doesn’t think much of one or the other: “I think Kurum will win, but I don’t actually want either.”
There are many candidates from other parties. But polls indicate a neck-and-neck race between the AKP and CHP candidates.
Demonstrative closeness: Erdogan supports his candidate Kurum – his victory would also benefit the president.
One Preliminary decision for 2028?
For Imamoglu and Kurum, the outcome of the election is particularly important. If Imamoglu wins, it could stop his CHP’s nationwide decline in importance and make him the most promising candidate to run for the next presidential election in 2028.
If Kurum wins, Erdogan will become even more powerful. He recently announced that he would not run for president again, something the constitution prohibits him from doing. But some believe that after an AKP victory in Istanbul, Erdogan may seek to change the constitution to allow another term in office.
A man on the street even fears that the AKP simply would not accept defeat in Istanbul: “They will do everything to get Istanbul. And they are capable of doing everything. I’m worried. I’m sending That’s why my children went abroad.”
Council of Europe concerned about fairness
Nobody can say how justified such concerns are. The bottom line is that on election day itself it will probably be just as fair as last year’s elections. But the 2023 election campaign was uneven, especially in terms of media presence.
For the election observers at the Council of Europe Congress, this is a reason to take a closer look. The head of the German delegation, Sören Schumacher, said ARDoverall one has to look at Turkey with “a bit of concern”.
The equal treatment of the parties in the election campaign still needs to be checked. The observers want to present their first conclusions from the local elections, including in Istanbul, on Monday.
Uwe Lueb, ARD Istanbul, tagesschau, March 28, 2024 12:14 p.m