At Mont Aigoual and Valleraugue (Gard),
So, we didn’t see that coming. Admittedly, as one ventured towards the Cévennes peaks, the aisles had begun to whiten nicely from the ski resort of Prat Peyrot. But not enough to imagine what awaited us barely three kilometers further, up there, when we arrived at the Mont Aigoual Observatory. A good layer of powder snow, a fog you couldn’t see a mouflon crossing and above all, above all, violent gusts accompanied by frozen water that comes straight at you horizontally. Rémy Marguet welcomes us at the entrance of the imposing fortress-like building. His pout when he saw our little sneakers, not at all adapted to the situation, says a lot, but he has the decency not to add to it.
The just sixty-something man, white beard and sleeveless down jacket on his back, is a meteorologist. They are only two, with the manager Chantal Vimpère, to occupy the places in turn in what is the last meteorological observatory in altitude in activity in France – those of Puy de Dôme, Mont Ventoux and Pic du Midi have not fulfilled this function for a long time. Inaugurated in 1894, the Aigoual, even if it is no longer officially a forecast center since 2012, has retained a space for discovery and activities around the weather. Between April and November, nearly 80,000 people still come here each year to admire the view (when the weather is nice, you can make out the Pyrenees, the Alps and the Mediterranean coast), the photo exhibition and listen to the professionals talk about forecasts, clouds , wind and episodes from the Cévennes. “We popularize science, and at the same time we share the history of the place”, explains Rémy. But the revolution is on.
In the Cévennes, the warming is already here
The Causses-Aigoual-Cévennes community of municipalities will take command of the site, replacing Météo-France. To revitalize it, exit the weather side, it intends to make it a center for the interpretation of climate change. We will spare you the details on the delays, the somewhat painful transition and the doubts of current employees about the future of a site to which they are viscerally attached, the transformation of the Observatory must be completed at the end of the year or in the spring of 2023. The new exhibition, led by a leading scientific committee, is supposed to become a reference in terms of the analysis of climate change.
The region lends itself particularly well. In the Cévennes, there is no need to make projections for 2050 to see the warming. On a computer, Rémy Marguet shows the evolution of the average temperature observed in August at Aigoual since the first readings, at the end of the 19th century, compared to a normal carried out over 30 years (1981-2010). Since 1990, almost all years have been above this, with increasingly frequent peaks around +2°C. Which is not without consequences, of course. “The warmer the air mass, the higher the clouds that give rise to thunderstorms (cumulonimbus clouds) will rise and encounter low temperatures. It creates a kind of chimneys that will trigger storms of incredible violence, details the meteorologist. And that, we left to have more and more on the territory. There will be more precipitation, spread over fewer rainy days. »
No need to have bac + 12 in climato to see the problem. Nor to go very far to observe a manifestation of it. A few kilometers below, in the Hérault valley, the village of Valleraugue was devastated by a gigantic flood in September 2020. In the space of a few hours, more than 700 mm of water fell (700 liters per meter square!), including 360 in three hours, an absolute record in France. Usually, a Cevennes episode, already not very funny, releases around 600 mm over four, five days. “It was in fact a Mediterranean phenomenon, hyper localized, specifies Rémy. Normally, the water descends into the Hérault, and it is the river that swells. There, it fell from the rivers on all sides, it crossed the walls, the houses, and it happened in the Hérault. We had never seen something like this before. »
Stigmas of this drama still visible
On the spot, the memory is still alive. Pauline works at the pharmacy, located right at the junction between the Hérault and the Clarou, one of its tributaries. “When it rains hard, we look out the door, we have alert thresholds, she explains. But then, it suddenly came up. I arrived at 8:30, it was high but nothing unusual. At 11 am, we had 1.20 m of water in the store. “You had to see that!” exclaims Anne, a 73-year-old retiree who observed everything from her house located on the shore but a little high up. The other side suffered the most damage. “Opposite, there, the swimming pool left with the fleet. Next door, the mechanic was completely flooded, she describes from her balcony. The water went over the wall. “Hard to imagine seeing him like that, overhanging the water a good five meters.
In the village, the stigmata of this tragedy which killed two people are visible in places. The terrace of the Hotel des Bruyères has never been rebuilt, walls have gaping holes. Same thing all along the valley, when you go up from Pont d’Hérault, a town located 15 km downstream. And yet, it could have been worse. At the fire station, we come across Simon and Johan. The two men were there, they worked all day, and the following ones, to save what could be saved. “We were lucky that it didn’t go down too high,” said the first. Because if it had rained in Aigoual as it rained here…” His partner finished in his place: “There was no more Valleraugue. »
“We are seeing episodes from the Cévennes which are gaining in intensity”
In general, the storms on the territory are “more and more frequent and more and more violent”, notes Ernest, Anne’s husband. Born in Valleraugue 83 years ago, he has seen the climate change on the scale of a lifetime. ” It’s day and night. At the time, we really had four seasons. We don’t see them anymore, he says. And then, that year, before the flood, there was a first episode in June. It’s not normal, it’s usually in the fall. They are right the ecologists, the climate is all out of order. »
Fortunately for everyone, it’s not just “greens” who are saying this today. Anthony Cellier, MP (LREM) for Gard and rapporteur for the energy-climate law in 2019, sums up the consensus: “We are seeing episodes in the Cévennes over an increasingly extended period, and which are gaining in intensity. It is directly linked to the impact of global warming, there is no more demonstration to be made. And it’s not going to get any better. “Extreme episodes will multiply, supports Chantal Vimpère, chief meteorologist of Aigoual. We will experience more extreme rains in a few hours, but also droughts, heat waves and forest fires. » The local economy will be impacted, with a significant drop in winter snowfall.
International issue…
Having said that, what can we do? Obviously, this problem requires decisions on a larger scale. “It is up to the countries to define the objectives compatible with climate issues, continues the deputy. The debate is no longer whether it heats up or not, but how fast and what temperature. The 1.5°C increase set by the Paris agreement (in 2015), which corresponds to the wisest forecasts, seems to be something acquired, with which we will have to live. We will need a considerable acceleration in the fight against this warming at the level of our country, Europe and the world. »
As far as France is concerned, Anthony Cellier, who launched “Les 24 heures du climat” in 2020 (24 one-hour round tables on climate issues in all areas of society), has had the goal of carbon neutrality by 2050. No small feat, since 60% of all the energy used in the country (factories, vehicles, heating, etc.) is carbon-based. He has been working for the last two years on the scenarios that would make it possible.
…and local resilience
In Valleraugue, these considerations very often pass over the heads of the inhabitants. “That’s far from us,” breathes Simon. We are everyday. Questions about interest in the presidential campaign are quickly brushed aside. “You think we talk about the climate, don’t you? “, asks the firefighter in return, in line with many researchers and personalities who have recently risen here and the against the irresponsible general apathy on the subject. And again, that was before the war in Ukraine…
Anyway, here, we rely more on ourselves than on the greats of this world to cope. Patricia Valette was able to observe this closely. You’ll never make her say that, but this 81-year-old Scotswoman, who arrived in France in 1962 with her husband, whom she met in Edinburgh, knows more about the region than its inhabitants themselves. She is the memory of Club Cevenol, a venerable association as old as the Aigoual Observatory which aims to preserve the territorial heritage. Sitting in an armchair in her house in Vigan, the large local town, she describes the local mentality:
“It’s a country of struggle here. People have in them this culture of risk, of danger. It is always too hot or too cold, it rains too much or not enough. They have always been in extremes. Life is already hard in the Cévennes, it will just be even harder. »
Little by little, resilience is being organized at the local level. Reflections are being carried out on vulnerability and land use planning – for example a return to Cévennes terraces, which can help with cultivation and soil protection, but also with water management. Tools, developed by the companyPredict Services or the company Cedralis, are also used by some municipalities in the department to better anticipate weather anomalies. Everything is recorded in a report published in 2021 by the RECO (network of expertise on climate change in Occitania).
“Let everyone take responsibility”
The mayor of Valleraugue, Joël Gauthier, believes that there are things to be done “on the habitat and the capacity of the soil to receive water”. After the disaster of September 2020, he designed with his teams new arrangements for the flow of water, enlarged certain structures which were undersized and reminded his constituents of their obligations in terms of maintenance of the streams. “Everyone has to take responsibility,” he insists.
A year and a half later, the reconstruction is not yet complete. The damage was estimated at 3.25 million euros. “We have done between 60 and 70% of the work”, assesses the mayor, who admits to himself “not very optimistic” for the future of his territory. This is somewhat the general feeling of all those we met. “Some say it was a century-old flood, but I think we will see it again, unfortunately, projects Johan. Everything is so messed up. “This kind of flood will happen again,” agrees Ernest, who has put on a coat and a beret to show us around the village. Leaning on his cane, he looks towards the heights. “What will happen will happen, we won’t be able to do much about it. The water, when it falls like that, you don’t stop it. »