The number of Covid intensive care patients is currently falling. But experts warn that this is unlikely to last. According to a new calculation, the trend could reverse very soon.
The number of new infections per day could reach a high of 160,000 to 240,000 in March due to the spread of the Omikron variant – in the worst case scenario. Then theoretically 8,000 people would have to be looked after intensively, about twice as many as today. This is the result of model calculations by a team led by the physicist Viola Priesemann from the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization in Göttingen, on which the “Spiegel” reports.
The multiple award-winning physicist Priesemann is also a member of the German government’s Corona Expert Council; their calculations served the committee as the basis for its first assessment of the Omikron variant over the weekend.
Viola Priesemann: The physicist was awarded the Lower Saxony Science Prize and the medal for scientific journalism, among other things. (Source: Jürgen Heinrich / imago images)
Even the most optimistic scenario means “no business as usual”
In the best, but unfortunately unlikely, case – if Omikron turns out to be relatively mild – the hospitals would just be able to cope, reports the “Spiegel” further. The reality is likely to fall somewhere between the best and worst scenarios, and will also depend on what policy measures are being taken to curb the spread.
In their calculations, the experts have taken into account that the population usually behaves more cautiously with increasing numbers of infections and diseases. “Even the optimistic scenario is not going to continue like this,” said Priesemann, “but assumes that people will behave much more cautiously depending on the hospital stress and that there will be a lot of vaccinations and boosts.”
Overloading of the intensive care unit occurs with a high degree of certainty
The researchers were relatively optimistic that Germany could get through the winter without a hard lockdown, Priesemann had already said in the NDR podcast on December 20 – that was the assessment “before Omikron occurred”. The situation is now very, very dynamic. In other countries, the number of infections has quadrupled per week. In Germany, the R value is currently 2 – higher than ever before. This is an enormous challenge for containment.
“If ten percent of people in the intensive care unit have to be supplied with Covid, that’s not a problem,” said Priesemann to the NDR. In the following week, however, with steep, unchecked growth, 40 percent of Covid patients were also pushing for the intensive care unit. “And in the following week that’s 160 percent.” It’s just a matter of time before the intensive care units are overloaded.
Intensive care numbers are falling because many patients are dying
On Thursday, 4,382 Covid patients were in intensive care units in Germany – 92 fewer patients than the day before. 2,588 of them require invasive ventilation. Intensive care physicians nevertheless urgently warn against assessing the development as the all-clear. “The workload is still very high, the workload even higher, the psychological stress on the teams is sometimes very much what is humanly possible,” said the President of the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive and Emergency Medicine (Divi), Gernot Marx, of the “Rheinische Post” “. “Because the number of Covid patients in intensive care units is also falling because a large number of patients are dying.” It was very difficult for the teams to endure, said Marx.
Intensive care physicians are currently preparing that the Omikron variant of the coronavirus will dominate in Germany in just a few weeks, according to Marx. “We are relatively certain that Omikron will be the dominant variant in Germany around the middle to the end of January.” Since too little is currently known about this virus variant, studies from abroad have to be studied, the development of incidences “closely monitored” and the situation sounded out.