The conservatives in power in Iran unsurprisingly won Friday’s legislative elections, marked by an unprecedented abstention since the start of the Islamic Republic in 1979. Four days after the election, the Ministry of the Interior announced, Monday March 4 , that ” 25 millions “ of Iranians, or “41%” of the 61 million voters, went to the polling stations. This figure is lower than that of 42.57% for the previous legislative elections, in 2020, which were disrupted by the Covid-19 crisis.
Participation was thus the lowest for legislative elections since the 1979 revolution, against a backdrop of calls for abstention launched following the disqualification of numerous moderate or reform candidates before the election. These elections were considered a test for power, because they were the first since the vast protest movement that shook the country following the death, in September 2022, of the young Mahsa Amini, arrested for non-compliance with strict Iranian dress code.
The Minister of the Interior, Ahmad Vahidi, welcomed Monday that“despite the powerful and unprecedented propaganda of the enemies and the use of all tools to dissuade people from voting, and despite economic problems, the people showed magnificent mobilization”. He blamed forces “nefarious, including intelligence services and terrorist groups” having tried to “undermine security” elections, without succeeding. He did not give details about these “enemies”, but the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had blamed the United States, Israel and certain European countries. Washington judged on Thursday that these elections were neither “free” neither “fair”.
“Meaningless elections”
The main coalition of reform parties, the Reform Front, announced its refusal to participate in these “meaningless elections” after the disqualification of many of its candidates before the vote. Due to this boycott, the next Parliament will be largely under the control of the various conservative and ultraconservative groups which support the government of President Ebrahim Raïssi, elected in 2021.
The composition of Parliament will only be known after a second round, which will be held in April or May for 45 of the 290 seats, the candidates not having obtained a sufficient number of votes.
According to media analysis of the various lists present, some 200 of the 245 deputies already elected can be attached to the “principalists”a name which brings together all the tendencies of the conservative camp, up to the most extreme.
The latter, in favor of a strict line regarding the values of the Islamic Republic, such as the compulsory wearing of the veil, advocate firmness towards Western countries. Those responsible for these trends have remained discreet, and none have declared victory. Some of them were re-elected with difficulty, like the outgoing President of Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, who could be challenged for the presidency of the Assembly.
The number of reformist or centrist deputies should be between 40 and 45, according to estimates from moderate newspapers. Across the country, 11 women were elected, out of 245, while there are 16 currently sitting in Parliament.
The Iranians were also called upon to renew the 88 members of the Assembly of Experts, responsible for appointing the supreme leader. Made up of 88 clerics, this assembly will remain dominated by conservatives, moderate candidates having been disqualified, like former president Hassan Rouhani.
The renewed Assembly of Experts could be called upon to play a leading role in the process of appointing a new supreme guide in the event of the disappearance of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, aged 84.