Epidemic recovery or eighth wave? For the Minister of Health, François Braun, Monday September 19, at the microphone of France Inter, “it is too early to say that it is already the beginning of the eighth wave, but the indicators are on the rise”. Since September 6, the number of new cases is increasing again, while the eight weeks of decline that marked the ebb of the seventh wave raised hopes of a return to school without Covid-19. Alas, the reproduction rate has exceeded the value of 1, a sign of a resumption of viral circulation, while the incidence rate increases in a contrasting manner depending on the departments: it is highest in the Ardennes (374 new cases for 100,000 inhabitants), in Cantal (373) and Haute-Saône (356).
In total, there are more than 25,000 new infections per day. The number of daily hospitalizations is rising slightly (+10% in one week), but not yet that of deaths. “We are on armed vigilance against this new wave which, all the scientists tell us, is going to happen”added the minister.
The eighth wave is indeed long awaited. The last two years have shown the seasonality of the coronavirus, the circulation of which is favored by the arrival of the cold seasons. Moreover, the succession of two waves carried by the same Delta variant, in July and October 2021, confirmed that the emergence of a new variant or sub-variant was not necessary to cause a new rebound. “The autumn wave is inevitable, due to several factors: all the elements that reinforce social interactions in closed places, the increase in the time elapsed since the last vaccine injection and the insufficient vaccination coverage for the second booster”underlines Gilles Pialoux, head of the infectious and tropical diseases department of the Tenon hospital, in Paris.
Low vaccination coverage in children
Mixtures linked to returns from summer holidays, and more specifically the start of the school year, play, as often, an important role in this epidemic rebound characteristic of epidemics due to respiratory viruses. “As with the seasonal flu, Covid-19 first attacks children in kindergartens and primary classes and then young people in secondary school, both because of the favorable conditions that the start of the new school year provides for the spread of the virus and the very low vaccination coverage of young people in Franceemphasizes Antoine Flahault, director of the Institute of Global Health at the University of Geneva. The start of the school year therefore contains all the ingredients for an effective and rapid transmission of the coronavirus. » This is evidenced by the incidence rates for 0-9 year olds and 10-19 year olds, which more than doubled (respectively +122% and +113%) between September 7 and 9. Logically, the age group of their parents, 30-39 years, follows them (+42%).
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