“The COP of fossils”. The 28th Conference of the Parties on climate change, which opens this Thursday and will be held until December 12, will have difficulty avoiding this nickname as the fossil fuels (coal, natural gas and oil) will be at the heart of the negotiations. Its host country immediately puts both feet in it. Because this COP28 is taking place in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the seventh largest producer of oil in the world and 14th for natural gas.
By hosting this COP, the UAE assumes the presidency. A major role since it is up to the president of the COP to facilitate the work and debates, before and during the conference, to achieve the most ambitious final agreement possible.
A COP president also boss of the Emirati oil company
While this function usually falls to the host country’s environment ministers, the United Arab Emirates chose Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber. A man of many hats, both Minister of Industry but also CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), the Emirati national oil company. Enough to arouse the disbelief of NGOs and many climate experts.
But in Dubai or elsewhere, fossil fuels would necessarily have been a central subject of COP28. Especially as the objective of keeping global warming below +1.5°C and even below +2°C recedes, as almost all the states in the world committed to by adopting the Agreement from Paris. The United Nations continues to remind us of worrying signals. Not only do greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow, but the trend is not about to reverse, the agency pointed out in mid-November. If they were all applied, the commitments of States recorded in their nationally determined contributions (NDC) would only make it possible to reduce emissions by only 2% in 2030, when the IPCC considers it necessary to reach – 43% by this same deadline to remain as close as 1.5°C.
At the heart of the battle: fossil fuels. Electricity, heat, fuels… 48% of global emissions are linked to their combustion to produce energy. However, the rise of renewables does nothing: global production of fossil fuels continues to grow to meet increasing global energy demand.
The release of fossils, the subject that is rising at the COPs
All the same, drawing an exit trajectory for these fossils is a subject that is rising at the last COPs. In Glasgow, in 2021, we have never been so close to mentioning this issue in the final text of COP26. The initial version “invited the parties [les pays] to accelerate the phasing out of coal and fossil fuel subsidies. The one finally adopted was reduced under pressure from certain countries including China and India. A year later, in Sharm-el-Sheikh, Egypt, “a coalition of 80 countries – including the EU, hydrocarbon-producing countries like Canada and the United States, but also India*-, proposed to include in the final text the principle of a gradual abandonment of all fossil fuels”, recalls Lola Vallejo, director of the climate program of theInstitute of Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI). White cabbage again**.
Will Dubai be able to overcome these blockages? Arnaud Gilles, Climate-Energy Manager at WWF France, sees encouraging signals. Pressure in this direction from the UN, civil society, scientific community is still going strong, he begins. “Many countries have made this exit from fossils their priority for COP28,” he adds. This is particularly the case of the EU, which published in mid-October the position it will take to Dubai. She will thus defend “the elimination of fossil fuels burned without CO2 capture”, with a peak in their global consumption from “this decade”.
What game does Al-Jaber play?
Too timid? We will come back to this. What also matters is the state of mind in which the hydrocarbon-producing countries will present themselves in Dubai. Here again, Arnaud Gilles sees encouraging signs. There would even be a positive thing if this COP28 took place in Dubai. “Since the beginning of 2023, the dialogue has clearly strengthened between fossil producing countries and consuming countries,” he observes, estimating that the frosty reception of his appointment has undoubtedly pushed Al-Jaber to strive in this direction . Lola Vallejo also sees an evolution between the speeches at the start of the year by the president of the COP, “very aligned with the positions of hydrocarbon producing countries” and his latest letters sent to the parties [aux 197 pays qui participeront à la COP28] “. “In that of July, for example, he writes that reducing fossil production is essential and inevitable,” she illustrates.
Surprising from an Emirati official, even more so CEO of the national oil company? This is the whole problem with COPs, where you often have to read between the lines. “He does not mention any date and talks about reducing and not exiting,” points out the director of the IDDRI climate program. It could very well be a facade position, a way to clear customs if COP28 never results in any progress on fossils. »
“Unabated”, an explosive term
The cards will eventually fall in Dubai. A term is already raising fears of bitter battles. The one of“unabated”, Several technological processes today seek to capture CO2 emissions emitted during the production and use of fossil fuels – at the outlet of factory chimneys or exhaust pipes in particular – and then store them. We are talking about CCS (carbon capture and storage in English). A boon for hydrocarbon producers, who are pushing for the release of fossils to only concern “unabated”, that is to say those not equipped with CCS devices. “For decades, we have been promised wonders with these technologies, but we still see nothing coming,” retorts Arnaud Gilles. In its last report in mid-September, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has reduced the role qEU could play CCS in the energy transitiondue to insufficient progress made in recent years.
A ball seized on the rebound by the EU. If it does not set an exit date for fossil fuels and only targets “fossil fuels burned without CO2 capture”, Spanish Minister Teresa Ribera, whose country holds the rotating presidency, specified in mid-October that the CCS must be reserved for the most difficult sectors to decarbonize. Particularly in industry but not in energy production, the main sector emitting greenhouse gases on a global scale. And “the long-term objective remains that fossils are gradually eliminated from the energy mix,” she insisted.