SCOTT OLSON/Getty Images via AFP
Donald Trump, 2024 US presidential candidate, in Iowa on December 19, 2023.
UNITED STATES – This year is only a week old but it has already been talked about several times. Because the Supreme Court said it was taking up his case, because his successor and future rival accused him of using “Nazi rhetoric” or because he himself had already held a meeting. And you haven’t finished hearing the name of Donald Trump in 2024. Because in the coming months, the billionaire is gambling on his political future between his attempt to comeback in the White House and the multiple legal proceedings that could shatter his ambitions.
Deliberately provocative, propagator of false information and conspiracy theories… as a candidate for the presidential election, Donald Trump has not changed his recipe. And it works with the Republican electorate: he crushes the competition for the party primary.
As you can see below in the graph from the FiveThirtyEight site, he is almost 50 points ahead of his two main rivals, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.
FiveThirtyEight screenshot
Polls for the Republican primaries at the national level.
Its dominance is slightly less marked in individual states, although it remains ultra-dominant. In Iowa, the first caucus on January 15 which will set the tone for the next six months, the former president collects 50% of the voting intentions against 18.4% for Ron DeSantis in second place. In New Hampshire, the second state to vote on January 23, 20 points separate Trump from Nikki Haley.
FiveThirtyEight screenshot
Poll for the first caucus in Iowa on the Republican side.
FiveThirtyEight screenshot
Polling for the New Hampshire primary.
Donald Trump therefore seems extremely well on his way to obtaining his party’s nomination as in 2016 and 2020. What about the November general election against the Democratic candidate, who should, unless surprisingly, be Joe Biden? The polls are mostly in his favor, although only a few points separate the two men who covet the Oval Office.
Trials galore
There are, however, big stones in the real estate mogul’s shoe. Donald Trump is indicted in several cases, including two at the federal level. The news will therefore be marked by his trials, the first of which is planned to open on January 16. This is the appeal trial in a defamation case, of which journalist E. Jean Carroll accused him and where Trump was sentenced to a heavy fine in May.
The billionaire is also being prosecuted in four criminal cases. The trial for his involvement in the events of January 6, 2021 in Washington is scheduled to begin on March 4, the day before Super Tuesday (the date on which most states hold their primaries). On March 25, he is expected to face justice again in connection with illegal payments to porn actress Stormy Daniels during the 2016 election campaign.
May 20 should begin that on the confidential documents found in his residence of Mar-a-Lago in Florida. The ex-president is also being prosecuted for his attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 election in Georgia. A trial date has not yet been set. At the same time, the verdict in the fraud trial in New York State, in which he is accused of having inflated his fortune to obtain advantageous loans, is awaited.
A conviction could be fatal
The announced dates, however, are not set in stone. Trump is seeking by all means to postpone the deadlines after the election, because if the indictments have had no effect on his popularity, quite the contrary, the ex-president knows that a criminal conviction and even more so in a federal case could cost him dearly.
In any case, this is what several polling institutes have shown which questioned voters on the impact of a conviction for the presidential election. If Trump currently dominates Biden by 4 points (47 against 43% of the vote), he would lose by a small point against the outgoing president in the event of conviction, for example concluded the study published in the Wall Street Journal early December.
What signify the end of his political career? With Trump, it’s hard to be convinced. He has already proven that he is capable of coming back despite defeats and that he does not let himself be defeated. His base also showed that they would support him no matter what. No matter the outcome of the election or its trials, the phoenix could yet rise from the ashes.
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