Just a few days ago, the US government announced that it wanted to do without a small but not unimportant word in the future: imminent. It will no longer be said that a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine is “imminent,” Washington said. That was a gesture to the government in Kiev, which wanted to prevent panic from breaking out in their country because of the constant war warnings from the USA. Even the American allies in Europe, who were still in the middle of all sorts of diplomatic negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, were probably a little irritated that the USA gave the impression that a Russian attack on the neighboring country could begin at practically any time.
The reluctance in Washington did not last long, however. On Friday, US President Joe Biden’s National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, used an equivalent word in his description of the situation – immediate. “Russia could give the order for a major military action against Ukraine in a very short time,” he said. The United States does not know with any certainty whether Putin decided and ordered an invasion. But the danger is “high” and the threat is “imminent”.
A few hours before Sullivan’s statements, Biden had already connected in a conference call with heads of state and government from the most important NATO and EU countries. Among them were Chancellor Olaf Scholz and colleagues from Paris, London and Rome. However, the presidents of Poland and Romania – the two Eastern European countries that share the longest land borders with Ukraine – also took part in the meeting. In the past few days, the United States had deployed several thousand GIs to both countries to signal to Moscow that NATO’s eastern border was being defended.
Nothing was initially known about the details of the conversation. But the fact that the US government released Biden’s key adviser shortly after the call to warn of an invasion suggests Washington is genuinely concerned. Biden wants to call Putin again this Saturday.
According to Sullivan, the Russian army has massed enough troops and materiel for an attack on the Ukrainian border. “We see that Russia continues to escalate,” he said. “This includes the arrival of new military forces at the Ukrainian border.” The security adviser even speculated publicly about how an invasion might work. “It would probably begin with airstrikes and rocket fire that could kill civilians,” Sullivan said. After that, a ground offensive “by a massive force” could follow.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made similar comments to Sullivan. At a press conference in Australia, he warned that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could begin “at any time.” He also doesn’t want to rule out the possibility that Putin might strike while the Winter Olympics are currently taking place in Beijing, Blinken said. Until now, the West had expected Putin to wait until the games ended on February 20 so as not to anger the Chinese government. In the event of a Russian attack on a European country, it would probably be difficult to simply continue the games.
Blinken’s statement followed an urgent warning from the US State Department to all American citizens in Ukraine to leave the country as soon as possible. Sullivan spoke on Friday of a window of 24 to 48 hours that Americans should use to leave the country. President Biden clarified in an interview that the US military will not rescue Americans from Ukraine once an invasion has begun. The risk of clashes with Russian soldiers during an evacuation operation – and thus the “Third World War” – is too high. Other European countries have also asked their citizens to leave Ukraine as soon as possible.