The Ifo Institute is lowering its growth forecast for this year, but it should be even better next year. Although people spend a lot of money, the industry suffers from delivery bottlenecks.
According to the Ifo Institute, the German economy will recover from Corona more slowly than originally thought. The economic researchers are now only assuming growth of 2.5 percent this year – 0.8 percentage points less than previously assumed. At the same time, they increased their forecast for the coming year by 0.8 percentage points, as the institute announced on Wednesday. Then Germany’s economic output should even increase by 5.1 percent.
“The strong recovery after Corona, which was originally expected for the summer, continues to be postponed,” said Ifo economic chief Timo Wollmershäuser, according to a statement. He spoke of a split development: the industry can currently produce less because there are delivery bottlenecks for important preliminary products. At the same time, however, the business of service companies is growing.
“The sudden increase in global demand for durable consumer goods, electronic articles and special medical products has pushed many manufacturers of industrial intermediate products to their capacity limits,” said Wollmershäuser. “In addition, the global supply chains were faced with enormous logistical challenges as a result of greatly changed flows of goods.” At the same time, private individuals are spending more money – because income and employment prospects are good.
The Ifo experts assume that the number of unemployed in Germany will fall continuously: from 2.6 million this year to 2.4 in the next to 2.3 million in 2023. The currently relatively high inflation rate will also decline – from 3.0 percent this year to 1.6 percent the next one. Then the state budget should also be balanced again, according to the forecast of the Ifo Institute. This year, however, the federal, state, local and social security funds are likely to have a deficit of just under 160 billion euros and in the coming year of a good 50 billion euros.