At the IAA Mobility trade fair in Munich, car manufacturers are putting their e-cars in the limelight. The message: The future is electric. But when will the announced breakthrough of e-mobility come?
At the IAA, which used to be a pure car show and is now fully committed to sustainable mobility with the suffix Mobility, the German manufacturers are showing what the cars of the future will look like: digital, sustainable and, above all, electric.
Mercedes-Benz, for example, unveiled the new CLA and spoke of the electric “one-liter car” given its consumption of just twelve kilowatt hours (kWh) per 100 kilometers. Although it is still a concept vehicle, it is “close to series production”, i.e. it should go into production in the not too distant future.
The same applies to the BMW Vision New Class with an electric powertrain that promises, among other things, 30 percent faster charging and 30 percent more range compared to today’s technologies. The cars should be on the road in two years. Volkswagen announces eleven new all-electric models by 2027. The situation is similar for other manufacturers. The car companies in this country seem to have done their homework.
goal of federal government: 15 million electric cars by 2030
The registration numbers of so-called BEVs (Battery Electric Vehicles), i.e. cars that drive purely electrically, are also increasing significantly in Germany. According to the Federal Motor Transport Authority, 20 percent of new registrations were already e-cars in July 2023. If you look at the number of registered vehicles, however, the situation as of July 1 is different. With a share of 2.4 percent and a number of 1.17 million vehicles, battery cars are still the exception German streets.
The federal government wants to change that. By 2030, the traffic light would like to see at least 15 million BEVs on German roads. However, according to calculations by the Center of Automotive Management (CAM), this goal cannot be achieved; Until then, only about seven to eight million battery cars would be realistic. What’s the problem?
In this context, Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, head of the Center Automotive Research (CAR), blames the “actionist funding policy of the Berlin coalition” and the excessively rapid reduction in the purchase premium for e-cars. Since September 1st, only private individuals can apply for the “environmental bonus”. Companies, but also the self-employed, will no longer benefit from this. From 2024, only vehicles with a maximum base list price of 45,000 euros will be funded. At the beginning of the year, the responsible Federal Ministry of Economics canceled the subsidy for plug-in hybrids. A mistake in Dudenhöffer’s eyes: “Habeck is destroying the electric car in Germany for the German car manufacturers,” is his hard conclusion.
No subsidy for small cars
Criticism of the funding has also come from other quarters for a long time: light electric vehicles with an empty weight of up to 450 kilograms (without batteries) and a maximum output of 15 kilowatts are excluded from the “environmental bonus”. The manufacturers of these “micro cars” of the EU vehicle class L7e see a clear competitive disadvantage in Germany compared to the larger cars.
“We finally need incentives for smart transport offers and incentives to downsize our cars. Light electric vehicles are ideal for city traffic, only need half the parking space and save a lot of material and CO2 during production. Countries like Italy, Holland, Greece are promoting them.” , complains Hans-Peter Kleebinder, chief brand guardian at the Swiss manufacturer of the Microlino, a lightweight vehicle that looks like a modern version of the 1950s BMW Isetta. Together with other European manufacturers, the Swiss company wants to advertise the smallest e-cars at the IAA and for corresponding subsidies.
sticking point charging infrastructure
Another construction site on the way to the electromobile future is the charging infrastructure. According to figures from the Federal Network Agency, there were exactly 92,672 public charging points for e-cars in Germany as of June 1; but not even one in five of these was a fast charging point. If the development of charging points is to keep up with the number of registrations of e-cars, the number of charging options will have to multiply in the coming years. But progress is much too slow here, as the car industry repeatedly complains – despite numerous initiatives by the energy suppliers and the car manufacturers themselves and a “master plan” by the federal government.
When it comes to expanding private charging stations, the government is going on the offensive – just in time for the IAA – with a new measure. Volker Wissing’s (FDP) Federal Ministry of Transport has set up a funding pot of 500 million euros. From September 26, around 10,000 euros in funding can be applied for for an e-car charging station in connection with a new photovoltaic system and a power storage unit. The KfW development bank is responsible for processing. But there are a few hurdles: The technology has to be purchased from scratch. Requirements include having your own house and your own e-car.
However, one crucial point remains: Electromobility can only succeed with the expansion of the charging infrastructure, especially fast charging points. After all, new charging technologies help here, which promise, for example, in the new CLA from Mercedes-Benz, to “refuel” a range of 400 kilometers in just around 15 minutes.
Inflation as a brake on e-mobility
The list of challenges that need to be mastered on the way to widespread electromobility success could be continued. For example, there is the question of the raw materials for the batteries. They are mainly won outside of Europe. In this context, car managers have long been warning of dependence – for example on China – and are looking around for investments in corresponding mines.
According to the automotive industry, rising prices are also slowing down e-mobility. Hildegard Müller, President of the VDA, the Association of the Automotive Industry, which organizes the IAA, explains: “The high inflation and concerns about the economy – that’s what creates problems for people. And that’s why the purchase of a new car is then also given special consideration.”
But despite all the hooks and eyes: The new technology is practically “doomed to be successful” in Europe – and the schedule is set. Because: In 2035, no new cars that run on fossil diesel or petrol may be sold in the EU.
Will Chinese manufacturers help with the breakthrough?
This is another reason why Chinese automakers are targeting the European market. While China used to be a huge sales market and production site for manufacturers from home and abroad for electric cars, the companies from there are now pushing into the European market with many models. At the IAA they are represented more prominently than ever before.
While you won’t find a few international heavyweights such as Toyota on the list of exhibitors, Chinese manufacturers such as BYD (Build Your Dreams) are presenting themselves with ambitions at the IAA. The company recently became the market leader on the Chinese market and now wants to export cars in particular – including to Europe.
“The Chinese are coming to Europe. And they will be much faster than, for example, the Koreans or the Japanese. They are coming at Tesla pace, at Chinese pace. Something is in store for us here,” predicts automotive expert Dudenhöffer. It is only a matter of time before Chinese automobile plants are built here.
German CEOs are relaxed
The German manufacturers are apparently quite relaxed about the Chinese challenge in view of their newly developed electric cars. Oliver Zipse, CEO of BMW AG, says: “The [chinesischen Hersteller] come here now, just like we went to China 20 years ago and set up factories there. And it would be a strong signal if factories were built here, that the location conditions here are such that new jobs can be created here. I’m relatively relaxed because BMW is always in competition.”
VW boss Oliver Blume compares it to a sporting competition: “The better the competition, the better I have to be myself. And the whole thing is always in the interests of the customer.” In fact, those who buy an electric car will benefit from increased competition. And the transformation to electromobility will be accelerated. What remains are the framework conditions that the state must create in order to make the switch to battery cars attractive so that the mobility breakthrough can succeed.