Hurricanes over Germany: “Two storms in a row not surprising”

weather extremes
One hurricane is followed by the next: “It’s not surprising that two storms come in a row”

After storm “Ylenia” has already swirled properly, the next hurricane low with “Zeynep” is approaching on Friday afternoon. While “Ylenia” left for the Baltic States and Finland on Thursday afternoon, but continued to lead to stormy conditions during the course of the day, according to the forecasts, hurricane low “Zeynep” is already expected on Friday afternoon. The storm is expected to rage most violently from the East Frisian coast to the Elbe. “Extreme gusts of wind of over 140 kilometers per hour can temporarily occur there,” said the German Weather Service (DWD). Extreme hurricane gusts with wind speeds of up to 135 kilometers per hour are also expected on the Baltic Sea coast on Friday evening. In the other regions of the north, hurricane-like gusts or hurricane gusts can be expected.

The force with which the hurricane will hit the north is still not 100 percent predictable. The signals for extreme hurricane gusts are there. The DWD receives new model data every six hours.

The coming days will remain stormy in Germany

Heavy gusts of wind and hurricane-force gusts occurred on Thursday night. “The leader in measured wind peaks is once again the Brocken, where speeds of 150 kilometers per hour were registered,” said the German Weather Service on Thursday. But there were also hurricane gusts in places at lower altitudes. For example, 125 kilometers per hour were measured in Angermünde in Brandenburg and 123 kilometers per hour in Arnsberg (North Rhine-Westphalia).

According to the forecast, the weekend will be changeable, wet and sometimes stormy. Another hurricane is therefore not in sight – but more storms. According to estimates by the DWD, the series of storm lows could continue at the beginning of the coming week.

In the coming days, too, Germany will be in the sphere of influence of a strong north-west current from the Atlantic. Therefore, after a short breather, another storm of similar strength is to be expected, especially on Saturday night. Further storm lows must also be expected from Monday.

The potential of “Ylenia” and “Zeynep” could come close to hurricane “Kyrill”.

“It is not surprising that two storms come one after the other,” explains ntv weather expert Björn Alexander star. From a weather point of view, this could happen if the current weather conditions allow it. This is currently so unfavorable that Germany is in the “entry lane” of the low-pressure areas.

How severe the current storms and hurricanes are is “unfortunately still difficult to say for the details in the case of acute damage in advance and also in view of the uncertainties in the forecasts of the individual computer models.”

In terms of potential, however, it could reach the hurricane “Kyrill” in 2007. For the north, where “Kyrill” did not rage so violently at the time, effects like “Anatol” in 1999 are also conceivable. “We have had such extremely large storm events less often in recent years,” adds Alexander. But that hasn’t happened in the last 10 to 15 years.

Extreme weather and storms will become more frequent with climate change

However, such singular events are difficult to associate with climate change, since this is something that happens over decades. Nevertheless, the weather expert assumes that such storms and hurricanes could occur more frequently in the future. An intensification of storm events in the coming years and decades is a consequence of ongoing climate change.

Climate researchers expect that in the future extreme weather events will occur more frequently worldwide and also in Germany due to global warming. Also the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC assumes that extreme weather events will occur more frequently. Bad heat waves would come once a decade. Hurricanes and typhoons would intensify, rain and snowfall would increase, and droughts would become more frequent.

rw with material of
DPA