The Michaelmas fair in Miltenberg, Lower Franconia, is not a big folk festival, but apparently so big that two men can avoid each other. On Monday around noon, both Markus Söder (CSU) and Hubert Aiwanger (free voters) visited the fairground on the banks of the Lower Main. The Bavarian Prime Minister and his deputy did not meet. Eyewitnesses report that Aiwanger kept his visit very brief; after all, he conducted the band in the tent at one piece.
Söder and Aiwanger will see each other in Munich on Tuesday morning, but the meeting will lack the coziness of the Michaelmas fair. Söder has convened a special session of his state government’s coalition committee. The invitation, which the head of the state chancellery Florian Herrmann (CSU) brought publicly, was not exactly cordial for Aiwanger.
Aiwanger’s previous explanations of what he had to do with the production and distribution of an anti-Semitic leaflet as a 17-year-old schoolboy did not satisfy the CSU. Herrmann said it was noted that Aiwanger’s brother Helmut was said to have written the pamphlet. “But many questions remain unanswered. Only Hubert Aiwanger can answer them personally.” And that must be done “promptly” and “comprehensively”. “It’s about Bavaria’s reputation.”
Aiwanger should be well aware of the seriousness of the situation, even though he said into the reporter’s microphone in Miltenberg that the leaflet was “not the latest topic right now.” In the leadership of the CSU, the allegations against Aiwanger are considered highly topical, the continued existence of the joint government is in question, and that six weeks before the state elections. The Christsozialen quarrel with the fact that the FW have gathered behind Aiwanger’s version of events, although this is obviously “thinny”. The fact that Hubert Aiwanger could have collected the leaflets to “de-escalate”, as his brother Helmut told the Bayern media group on Monday afternoon, is “ridiculously unbelievable”.
Söder puts all of this in a very uncomfortable position. The Bavarian opposition and many others are vehemently demanding that he have to fire Aiwanger – for some it is even enough that the 17-year-old Aiwanger had the leaflet with him, which he admitted. In the environment of the CSU leadership, this pressure is felt to be “inappropriate”: “What we now know is not enough for a dismissal. There is no proof that he is the author of the leaflet.”
A dismissal would be such a serious process that “the evidence must be watertight”. The CSU fears that such a step would not be understood by a significant part of the population if there was insufficient evidence. You would then run the risk of “damaging the political culture in the country” and “even strengthening the system skeptics”.
Söder, according to the CSU, must now “act with caution and deliberation”, but if necessary also “act decisively”. If new evidence came to light, or evidence that Aiwanger lied, that would change the basis for the decision. Söder always took the promise of protection for Jewish life in Bavaria very seriously: “He will act according to this requirement if the evidence should clarify.”
The free voters were quiet on Monday, at least in Bavaria. The sounds came from a different direction. In Rhineland-Palatinate, where the party is also represented in the state parliament, the head of the FW state, Stephan Wefelscheid, made the federal chairman Aiwanger responsible. The presumption of innocence applies, Wefelscheid said according to SWR. But also: If Aiwanger was involved in the creation or distribution of the anti-Semitic leaflet, he could neither remain FW’s top candidate for the Bavarian state elections nor Vice Prime Minister. Wefelscheid called the time at which the allegations against Aiwanger were published “conspicuous”, but he does not see a “smear campaign”.
Unlike the free voters in Bavaria. Parliament secretary Fabian Mehring spoke on Saturday, like Aiwanger, of “dirty campaigns”. So far, no one on the top floor of the party and the parliamentary group has opposed Aiwanger. There’s a lot of talk behind the scenes, but openly? Rather not. The panic is palpable, the party is tailored to Aiwanger. He’s the one who pulls the votes. The FW without Aiwanger, what would be left of the survey values, which were between twelve and 14 percent recently? It’s just unimaginable that they would drop their leader.
And the opposition? While the prime minister is increasing the pressure on his deputy, the Greens, SPD and FDP are trying to put pressure on Söder. SPD faction leader Florian von Brunn would like to request a special session of the state parliament – and vote on Aiwanger’s dismissal. It can be heard from the Greens and FDP that they will probably join if Aiwanger does not dispel the doubts in the coalition committee on Tuesday and Söder does not then fire him himself. The votes of the Greens, SPD and FDP would be enough. Hardly anyone in political Munich believes that Aiwanger will throw down himself. And of course there is now hope among the opposition parties to suddenly get their own place as a partner alongside the CSU. SPD parliamentary group leader von Brunn wrote on Twitter on Monday after Söder had quoted his deputy in the coalition committee: “I thank the Prime Minister.” So friendly. This was not known from the SPD at all.