portrait
Often on the border of populism and sometimes beyond: Hubert Aiwanger determined the election campaign in Bavaria like no other. The Free Voters leader has mastered the art of staging.
As soon as Hubert Aiwanger enters a beer tent, he is celebrated. The Free Voters’ top candidate walks through the ranks waving. The brass band plays. The crowd claps in time, with occasional shouts of “Hubert, Hubert.” Aiwanger smiles and shakes many hands.
In a white shirt, with his sleeves rolled up, he gets going on stage. He criticizes the heating law, the Greens and the traffic light government in general. He praises farmers, craftsmen and everyone who worked diligently.
wave of Solidarization instead of damper
This is well received in the Bavarian beer tent. Aiwanger stands up for people in the countryside who no one else pays attention to, visitors praise. And the leaflet affair? After all, the Free Voters leader was under pressure for days because of an anti-Semitic pamphlet from his school days. That was 35 years ago and therefore far too long. “It can’t be the case that you are punished for childhood things,” says a woman in a dirndl. It is a “mess” and more than strange that the allegations against the Free Voters leader came out so shortly before the election.
Aiwanger comments as little as possible on the allegations. Instead, he continues to complain about a political campaign that was intended to destroy him personally and politically.
In doing so, he is surfing a wave of solidarity. Surveys show that the leaflet affair did not harm the Free Voters. In the ARD BayernTrend Ten days before the election, the Free Voters achieved 16 percent: That means second place behind the CSU. At 36 percent, it had to accept the lowest survey result in a long time.
Aiwanger as a figurehead
“Aiwanger was able to present himself as a figurehead,” says political scientist Alexander Straßner from the University of Regensburg. “For many, by no means radical, parts of the population, the political style of a government and media public that sees itself as being solely committed to the urban-progressive milieu and its higher morality is unbearable.”
At his beer tent appearances, Aiwanger not only praises the farmers who “provide our food”, he even aggressively declares his support for meat consumption. Like CSU boss Markus Söder, he likes to oppose a meat ban so vehemently that one would think that such a ban was actually on the horizon – which is not the case.
Aiwanger also calls for tax relief, advocates for the complete abolition of inheritance tax and says that people in rural areas should not be banned from driving. He particularly received applause for criticizing the Greens and the heating law: “The Neanderthals already knew that the cave would be warm if they heated it with wood. But the traffic light people in Berlin still don’t know that to this day.”
Folk hero or populist?
Aiwanger, the man of the people, an advocate for the “little people”: an image that only works because he likes to present himself as one of them. To this day, the Bavarian deputy head of government lives on a farm in Rahstorf in the Landshut district of Lower Bavaria. He grew up there and helped in the stable as a child. He studied agricultural sciences and became a pig farmer. He was chairman of the rural youth for seven years.
Aiwanger likes to emphasize that he has “already planted more trees than all the Greens put together” and that rural citizens themselves know best what they need – without patronizing the big city elites. It is a simple but effective rhetoric that Aiwanger uses: the big people from the city against the little people in the country.
The short form is: the “up there” – Aiwanger used it in his controversial speech at the protest demonstration against the heating law in Erding. A form of elite contempt that experts see as the defining characteristic of populism.
Sharp criticism after Erding demo
At the Erdinger demonstration, Aiwanger showed how he can polarize – and, according to many critics, also cross boundaries. In front of around 13,000 people – including AfD supporters – Aiwanger launched a verbal all-round attack. Above all, it was one sentence that sparked a huge debate: “Now the point has been reached where the silent vast majority of this country must finally take back democracy and tell those in Berlin: You’ve probably got your asses open up there.”
While some praised him effusively for his “clear words,” others criticized him sharply. Aiwanger uses the language of the AfD, incites people and fishes on the right-wing fringe.
The politician himself feels misunderstood. He wants to use “common sense politics” to bring disappointed voters, including AfD voters, back into the political center. “Because of the strong Greens, because of the left-wing opinion machine, people are saying more and more: I want to protest against this.” You have to take this seriously.
Encouragement from within our own ranks
Aiwanger enjoys support within his own party. The Free Voters look at the career of their top man with respect: entry into the state parliament in 2008, participation in government in 2018. Aiwanger as deputy prime minister and economics minister, at the same time state and federal chairman.
Aiwanger stands out “from the slick politicians of other parties,” says Fabian Mehring, the parliamentary director of the Free Voters. Party leader Florian Streibl calls him the “draw horse”. Aiwanger speaks a language that people understand. The last person to speak like that was Franz Josef Strauss.
CSU under pressure
It goes without saying that such a sentence does not go down well with the CSU, which still adores its bouquet today. Both parties are fighting for the same votes: the bourgeois conservatives. In the municipalities and districts, the Free Voters have long since become serious competitors to the CSU. They make up 14 of 71 district administrators in Bavaria. Dozens of free voter mayors sit in the town halls. Unlike the CSU, for many people the Free Voters are not one of the established parties.
This is an advantage, because people in rural areas in particular feel very let down by politics in general, says political scientist Straßner. The reason: From the perspective of the rural population, issues such as climate protection or the gender pay gap are irrelevant to their living conditions. According to Straßner, the topics relevant to them, such as mobility or economic problems, only appear indirectly on the political agenda.
Aiwanger’s feeling for topics
Aiwanger manages to grab people right there. He focuses on farmers, medium-sized businesses and generally all people who live in rural areas. He talks about inheritance tax, the energy transition, mobility and healthcare in rural areas.
Aiwanger has often proven in the past that he has a special feel for topics. Examples include the reintroduction of the nine-year high school or the abolition of tuition fees in Bavaria.
Tense relationship with Söder
Again and again it seems as if Aiwanger is driving Prime Minister Söder ahead of him. For example, during the corona pandemic, when Aiwanger called for relaxation and initially did not want to be vaccinated. It was the first major coalition dispute between the CSU and the Free Voters. The relationship between Söder and Aiwanger has been considered tense since then at the latest.
Anyone who observes the two at public events will quickly recognize this. Söder likes to crack jokes at his deputy’s expense. He then grits his teeth in torment and feels like he is being bullied. Aiwanger now openly criticizes Söder’s parades against him and sometimes shoots back.
In any case, he is not particularly squeamish when dealing with his coalition partner. “Of course, everyone is fighting for themselves during this time,” the Bavarian Economics Minister told the TV channel “Welt” when asked whether he felt sorry for the weakening CSU.
The leaflet affair and Söder’s dilemma
Söder can hardly call his deputy back because a good year ago he committed to continuing the coalition with the Free Voters after the state elections. A dilemma for Söder that became obvious in the leaflet affair. The support from the population and the close ties to the coalition partner: both of these meant that Söder basically had no choice but to stick with Aiwanger – despite all the accusations.
Political expert Straßner speaks of a “community of convenience”. For Söder, the days of absolute majorities in Bavaria are a thing of the past and a coalition with the Greens is impossible. Since cooperation with the SPD would also be difficult to convince the CSU electorate and the FDP may fail to get back into the state parliament, Söder, according to Straßner, is only left with a continuation of the black-orange coalition.
Free voters make demands
The Free Voters therefore already see themselves in a good negotiating position for the coalition talks after the state elections on October 8th. They claim a fourth ministry – possibly the Ministry of Agriculture.
Aiwanger, who is a farmer and hunter himself, says: “Agriculture and business go well together.” However, he wants to remain economics minister.
In any case, it is unlikely that the CSU will give up the agriculture department. Söder has already made it clear: The Ministry of Agriculture remains in CSU hands.