“The global reality of global warming is essential (…) we must therefore prepare concretely for its inevitable effects on our territory and on our lives”, explains this Sunday the Minister of Ecological Transition, Christophe Béchu, in a press release. And how to prepare? By giving, on Tuesday, the kick-off of a public consultation until the end of the summer to define the reference warming trajectory for the adaptation of France (Tracc), on which the government will base the next French adaptation plan to climate change. A PNACC expected for the end of the year, in parallel with efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
“We want to provide our country with a clear trajectory in terms of adaptation” in order to “build a model of resilience as close as possible to the realities on the ground and to avoid mal-adaptation”, the Minister further pointed out. The summer of 2022 with its 40°C and its exceptional drought marked the spirits. A scenario that could be just a taste of France in 2100. This consultation therefore imagines what scenario France must prepare for in terms of global warming, with in particular the hypothesis of a warming of +4° C at the end of the century, very far from the target of +1.5°C set by the Paris Agreement.
Plan for a “more pessimistic scenario”
The first two versions of the Pnacc, dating from 2011 and 2018, only took into account the hypothesis of the objectives of the Paris agreement. A hypothesis that can be sent back to the locker room when France is already at +1.7°C and the last IPCC report estimated in March that global warming would reach the 1.5°C mark worldwide from 2030-2035.
This is without taking into account that the year 2022, the hottest ever recorded in France since 1900, with the hottest summer ever recorded in Europe, and the recent extreme weather events in the world (drought in Spain, heat waves in Asia, hurricane in Burma, drought in the Horn of Africa, etc.) show that the effects of climate change are accelerating. The government therefore now wants to plan for a “more pessimistic scenario” corresponding to “the probable trend in the absence of additional measures”, in which global warming would be 3°C, and therefore 4°C in metropolitan France.
In this scenario, heat waves could last up to two months and certain particularly exposed areas (Mediterranean arc, Rhône corridor, Garonne valley) could experience up to 90 tropical nights per year. The government expects more intense extreme rains, especially over a large northern half, and drought episodes lasting more than a month in the summer in the South and West. Water shortages will multiply with “strong tensions on agriculture and forestry” and “virtually all French glaciers will have disappeared”.
The French government proposes three projects
“Significant risks to all buildings, transport infrastructure and energy, water and telecommunications networks” are also to be expected with “marked effects on coastal areas (erosion of the coastline, marine flooding) “.
Finally, the multiplication of floods will have a “strong impact” on insurance, land use planning and transport. And at +3°C worldwide, the drop in gross domestic product (GDP) would be between 6.5% and 13.1%, estimates the reinsurance giant Swiss Re. On the insurance side, the damage could increase by 30% by 2050. Agricultural crop losses of 7.4% for wheat and 9.5% for barley are expected in 2050, and for the forest, the yield would drop between 4.6% and 11 .6% for pine.
Faced with this, the French government, in addition to the measures already in place (Water plan, Green Fund, etc.), is proposing three projects. The first will aim to update the various reference systems (Drias, Drias Eau, Climadiag) on which the authorities rely to anticipate the effects of global warming. The second will be a support plan for local authorities while the third will launch vulnerability studies to adapt economic activity. And the executive warns: “The adaptation measures to be put in place today, whatever the adaptation trajectory set, represent at least an additional 2.3 billion euros per year. »