faq
In February, voters in 455 Berlin voting districts are called upon to cast their vote again for the Bundestag. Who can vote again? And what does that change about the composition of the Bundestag?
Can there only be an election campaign where there is another election?
The parties want to at least conduct their election campaign in such a way that they primarily appeal to repeat voters. “It’s getting more difficult because we can’t call everyone to vote,” says Torsten Einstmann, who is running for the SPD for a second time in Berlin-Reinickendorf. “We have lists there and will have to explain it in detail at the information stands. For us, it’s about 35 percent of the voting districts.”
His campaign team does not have to be afraid of any administrative offenses: According to the state returning officer, it is allowed to hang posters, set up information stands or distribute flyers anywhere in Berlin. The parties do not have to plan street-specifically. Nevertheless, they want to be present where something is important.
Who can vote again?
Around 590,000 Berliners are called to vote again. Since the original election was more than six months ago, a new voters’ register was created. What counts is who is eligible to vote now – and not who was eligible to vote in 2021. Anyone who has moved from Berlin is not allowed to take part. On the other hand, people who have only recently lived in the capital or have just come of age are eligible to vote – always provided that they live in an affected voting district, i.e. certain neighborhoods or streets.
This is particularly likely in Berlin-Pankow: There, more than 80 percent of those eligible to vote will be called again. This shows that a repeat election is always a dilemma and raises new questions of justice: Some voters will contribute a total of two votes to the Bundestag. Others will no longer be represented at all because, for example, they have moved from Pankow to Köpenick, which is hardly affected.
How do I find out if I’m there?
With your home address you can on the website of the Berlin state returning officer Find out whether you belong to the 455 affected voting districts. If you want to be surprised, you can also wait: repeat voters will receive their notification by post by January 21st.
Who is running and will the ballot papers look the same as in 2021?
In principle, according to the Federal Election Act, a repeat election will take place with the same nominations. Anyone who was a direct or list candidate back then will also be a candidate in 2024. There are only a few exceptions: For example, deceased people cannot remain on the ballot paper. Name changes are also permitted, for example if an applicant has since married or acquired a doctorate.
New parties or candidates will not be admitted to the February election. Applicants who have left a party or changed parties are also on the ballot for their old party. This could affect left-wing politicians if they now get involved with the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance.
Is it possible for the direct mandate to change in a constituency?
This is mathematically possible in several constituencies. It is most likely in Pankow and Reinickendorf.
In Pankow, Stefan Gelbhaar won for the Greens with a four percent lead over the SPD candidate. Because a large number of people vote again, the result can be very different. “We want to defend the first green direct mandate in East Germany,” says Gelbhaar. “The competitors, especially the CDU and SPD, are not sleeping.” It is unclear who will be the main competitor – if the federal trend is followed, the Union could also move in.
In Reinickendorf there are not so many voting districts, but the result at the time was extremely close: Monika Grütters from the CDU was 1.4 percent ahead of Torsten Einstmann from the SPD. “I actually think I have a chance,” says Einstmann. “But it will be a real effort to mobilize people in this short and cold election campaign.”
The two directly elected so far, Gelbhaar and Grütters, are also secured via the state list anyway. That means: No matter how it turns out – they are back in the Bundestag. But for the state parties and individual parliamentary groups it could be a matter of one seat more or less.
What role does it play? Voter turnout?
Experts like Berlin political scientist Thorsten Faas predict little voter interest: “Voter turnout in the 455 voting districts will be dramatically lower than in 2021,” believes Faas. At that time it was around 75 percent. The new House of Representatives election in February 2023 showed that repeat elections are not a hit. For 2024, he would predict 40 percent voter turnout, said Faas. “Berlin’s representation in the Bundestag will be correspondingly lower.”
“All Berlin state parties have an interest in ensuring that it is not a ghost election,” says Stefan Gelbhaar from the Greens. Because it’s not just about direct mandates from Berlin. In addition to the first vote, the second vote is also repeated and then converted to the entire federal territory. Berlin could lose mandates if participation is weak.
Particularly at risk are MPs who were the last to enter the Bundestag via their state list: in the case of the Greens, this concerns Nina Stahr, in the case of the AfD, Götz Frömming and in the case of the SPD, successor Ana-Maria Trăsnea has to tremble.
Can there also be effects outside of Berlin?
There can be “cross-state shifts in the distribution of seats,” as the Berlin state election committee puts it in technical terms: “New mandate gains or losses can also arise in other federal states.”
Mandates that Berlin regional associations lose could therefore go to their party colleagues in other federal states. There are even calculations according to which members of other federal states lose their mandate under certain conditions.
What will the election campaign be about?
Hardly about the topics that played a role in 2021. The CDU in particular wants to turn the repeat election into a vote on the traffic lights: “Berlin, your chance. Show the stop sign to the traffic lights,” is what their posters say. “Germany cannot continue to be governed in this form for two years,” says CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann.
The Greens certainly seem to be taking up the challenge. They deliberately want to campaign on the basis of the results of the past two years: “So that we can do more of this, we need your vote,” says a call from the Berlin regional association. “It’s the first election of the year!” is how Stefan Gelbhaar sees it. That could send a signal.
The SPD campaigned heavily in 2021 with the aim of increasing the minimum wage to twelve euros. The coalition has now implemented this. The new SPD flyers need different campaign promises.
Will be the old one Campaign material used again?
In many streets it will look similar to 2021. “We were already expecting that there could be a repeat election and have taken down a lot of election posters as a precaution,” says AfD member of the Bundestag Götz Frömming. The party has stored 2,000 pieces with slogans such as “Zero tolerance for asylum fraud”. “It always fits,” say the AfD campaigners.
SPD candidate Torsten Einstmann will at least use his old photos again, but has had new posters printed with them: “Two years have passed, but the guy is still the same,” he says, referring to the motif at the time. “I have different glasses, you might notice that.”
The CDU and the Greens will hardly be able to use old posters again: both parties have developed new color concepts and logos in the last few months.
Overall, the new election campaign is costing all parties a lot of money: the Greens are entering the race with a budget of around 270,000 euros. The FDP is planning a “low six-figure amount”.
How quickly will the Bundestag change?
It normally takes up to six weeks after an election for the new parliament to meet. This time the legislation simply continues. When the final result is known, the Bundestag’s Council of Elders will decide “immediately ex officio” who will lose their seat, explains the Federal Election Commission.
“A lot of change would happen to me,” says SPD candidate Torsten Einstmann. His job in a federal ministry would have to be suspended. He sees the first tasks as “quickly setting up a constituency office and looking for staff.” “It changes everything – but that’s a good thing.”