The Bavarian SPD is used to bitter election results, but the 9.7 percent in 2018 was a low blow. Now top candidate Florian von Brunn is supposed to lead the party back into double digits.
Whenever possible, Florian von Brunn travels to appointments in Munich on his red men’s bike. But during the election campaign, the SPD’s top candidate has to tour all over Bavaria. Often by train, but also with the heavy SPD service limousine including driver.
It is von Brunn’s first state election campaign. The long-time Munich environmental politician and former IT consultant has a reputation problem in the Free State. Or rather an unknown problem. Loud BR-BayernTrend At least 42 percent of people in the country now know it; in early summer the figures were even lower.
Von Brunn is touring the country to make himself better known, but also to show his presence. This is extremely important in Bavaria, where the SPD often no longer even has local branches in the countryside. The SPD has around 200 mayors in Bavaria, in around ten percent of the over 2,000 municipalities. Von Brunn proudly said that this means that around four million citizens, almost a third of the population, know that the SPD can govern. For example in cities like Munich, Hof, Pfaffenhofen an der Ilm or in the municipality of Drachselsried in the Bavarian Forest.
The SPD no longer speaks of “15 percent plus X”.
The Bavarian SPD would therefore only be too happy to co-govern Bavaria and then replace Economics Minister Hubert Aiwanger from Brunn from the Free Voters. But that is not realistic. In surveys, the SPD has been at nine percent for months. In order to participate in government, the CSU and Free Voters would need a third coalition partner, but it doesn’t look like that. Loud ARD BayernTrend The CSU (36 percent) and the Free Voters (16 percent) together have a comfortable majority and can continue their desired coalition.
Von Brunn has not repeated his original election goal – “15 plus X” – for a long time. In the meantime, the SPD would be happy to at least get a double-digit result. It would also be a personal success for the 54-year-old.
“As a social worker you are capable of suffering”
The Munich von Brunn has a home game with the proud Nuremberg SPD, which only wants to see the current CSU mayor as a temporary electoral accident. He wears as usual: black suit, white shirt, no tie. The 300 visitors said afterwards: His speech was meaningful and fighting for more rental apartments was the right thing to do. Hopefully the election result will not be as bad as feared. “But as a social worker you are capable of suffering.” No matter how diligently Florian von Brunn campaigns, decades of electoral defeats are eating away at the self-confidence of the Bavarian Social Democrats.
The Bavarian SPD has been going steadily downhill over the past few decades. The comrades last appointed a prime minister in the 1950s – the CSU has ruled since then. The last bright spot in state elections was provided by SPD top candidate Renate Schmidt in 1998 with 28.7 percent, while Munich’s SPD mayor Christian Ude still got 20.6 percent in 2013. In the 2018 election, the result bars for the SPD and its top candidate Natascha Kohnen remained at a measly 9.7 percent.
Social issues and a chancellor campaign
In the election campaign, the SPD is focusing on social issues: cheap rental apartments, free daycare places, affordable care and good education for everyone – all pressing problems in the country, but federal political issues seem to play a particularly important role in the election decision. Loud BR-BayernTrend These are immigration, energy policy and environment/climate. The Bavarian SPD specifically used the same advertising agency for its campaign that also made Olaf Scholz chancellor.
The historian von Brunn still tries to score points with slogans like “Bavaria must remain affordable” and “Do it instead of Södern”. But many young voters in particular tend to lean towards the Greens, who are seen as more modern.
Whether helpful or not – the Chancellor also appeared in the election campaign: Olaf Scholz and Florian von Brunn in Munich.
Sharp speaker in the state parliament
Von Brunn has made a name for himself in the state parliament as a sharp, aggressive speaker, for example when dealing with the CSU mask affair or, most recently, in the debate about Aiwanger’s populist statements at a demonstration in Erding. Von Brunn’s verbal attacks on CSU Prime Minister Söder, who is a “master of announcing”, also apparently did not catch on.
The anti-traffic light trend is too strong and the slogans from Söder and Aiwanger against Berlin, about alleged schnitzel bans and gender requirements, are too powerful.
Von Brunn calls constantly talking about the threat of a meat ban “dividing people through fake news.” But the cheering crowds in the beer tents when Söder or Aiwanger appear show that the SPD cannot win the majority in Bavaria with its stance. And their social issues don’t catch fire.
Intra-party long controversial
The 54-year-old von Brunn comes from the left-wing workers’ wing of the Bavarian SPD. The social-ecological pioneers Johano Strasser and Erhard Eppler shaped it. Socially committed in the Munich tenant advisory service and as a biting environmental politician in the state parliament from 2013 – von Brunn fought his way to the top of the parliamentary group and the state party in tough internal party disputes.
Reviled as a lone fighter and too ambitious, he was not very popular in the SPD for a long time. He only narrowly won his battle votes in the state parliamentary group and party in 2021. Von Brunn had to work hard to gain the now broader support in his party. His will, his commitment and his hard work are recognized by the party. The comrades are grateful and happy that someone is committed to this leadership job and enjoys it. Maybe also because they know: They don’t have anyone better at the moment.
Who else does it in the SPD?
Von Brunn and CSU leader Söder may have something in common here: Both are not necessarily liked in their parties, but are respected. And so the comrades chose Florian von Brunn at the party conference in October 2022 with around 93 percent as the SPD’s top candidate for the state election on October 8th.
If the SPD is above the ten percent mark on Sunday, that counts as a success for von Brunn. If the SPD scores again in single digits, the sadness will continue. Even then, von Brunn hardly has to fear internal party competitors. There is no one in the Bavarian SPD who wants to do the job.