How Putin’s organized re-election works

Russia’s presidential election this weekend is neither free nor fair and is primarily intended to strengthen Putin’s power in the midst of war. How does voting work without a vote – and what does that mean for the future?

More than two years after the start of the major invasion of Ukraine, Russia is holding a presidential election until Sunday, the winner of which has already been determined: Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin will most likely have a record result certified and thus secure his fifth term in office.

Real opposition politicians are excluded from the election, have fled abroad, are in prison – or are dead. According to observers, there is also fraud and manipulation. The vote is so far removed from democratic standards that some only refer to it as a “sham election.” Answers to important questions:

How is the election going?

Russia’s Central Election Commission has scheduled the election for three days – March 15-17. A total of more than 112 million people are called to vote, including millions of people in the Ukrainian territories of Crimea, around Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson, which were annexed in violation of international law. In addition, there are around two million eligible voters in other countries.

Russia spans eleven time zones; The election begins in the far east and ends on Sunday at 7 p.m. Central European Standard Time in the Baltic Sea exclave of Kaliningrad. As the last polling stations close, forecasts will be published that most likely point to a landslide victory for Putin.

The electoral commission wants to announce the final result by March 28th at the latest. The sham votes in the occupied territories are contrary to international law and therefore not internationally recognized. The voting there has already begun and is causing disruption because images show Ukrainian people being pressured to vote, sometimes in the presence of heavily armed Russian soldiers.

Even on Russian territory, democratic standards are being violated so severely that, according to observers, there can be no question of free elections.

What makes the vote so unfair?

As with previous votes, large-scale fraud is expected this time, also because there will be no on-site monitoring by independent international election observers.

Online voting is considered particularly vulnerable to manipulation, which is why Kremlin critics advise Russians against it. The independent election observation organization “Golos”, which has been branded a “foreign agent” in Russia for years, has also expressed criticism elsewhere: In the individual regions, “mass” pressure is being exerted in advance on employees of large, partly state-owned companies, so that they can cast their votes and thus increase voter turnout, according to a recently published report.

If you look at the data from the Russian state polling institute WZIOM, then the Kremlin is aiming for a participation of more than 70 percent.

Above all, independent observers point out that many real opposition politicians have either fled abroad or been arrested in Russia and sentenced to sometimes draconian prison sentences. The death of imprisoned Kremlin opponent Alexei Navalny, who himself wanted to become a presidential candidate a few years ago, caused particular horror in mid-February.

There is serious Opposing candidates?

No. Putin’s three competitors – the communist Nikolai Kharitonov, Vladislav Davankov from the spoiler party “New People” and Leonid Slutsky from the nationalist party LDPR – not only have no chance at all, they are also completely in line with the Kremlin in key points.

State pollsters predict each of them will receive five to six percent of the vote. Putin, in turn, is predicted to receive 82 percent – more than ever since he took office as Russian head of state almost a quarter of a century ago in 2000.

The only truly opposition candidates, Yekaterina Duntsova and Boris Nadezhdin, were not even approved as candidates by the election commission. Nevertheless, the two war opponents gave courage to many critical Russians: The around 200,000 people who stood in long lines in January to support Nadezhdin with their signature made headlines far beyond Russia.

What role does the war against Ukraine play?

Putin will certainly use the high election results he has achieved to underline the supposedly huge support for his brutal war of aggression. At the same time, however, the increasing war-weariness of many Russians is becoming visible: there are not only the queues for Nadezhdin, but also, for example, the protests by the wives of mobilized men, which have been taking place near Red Square for weeks.

That’s exactly why the Kremlin deliberately ignored the topic of war in the election campaign, political scientist Alexander Kynew tells the dpa news agency: “Every conversation about the war leads to the question: When will it stop? The state has no answer to that. That’s why it’s avoiding the discussion the way.”

Are protests to be expected on election day?

In fact, supporters of the late Navalny and other opposition members are calling on Russians to show up at the polling stations at exactly 12 noon on election day. They hope that the long queues will show how dissatisfied there is in the country. Whether the campaign will be successful remains to be seen. Observers suspect that there will be arrests.

It is now considered impossible that images like those from Navalny’s funeral could be repeated in the near future. Thousands of people came to the funeral at the beginning of March and, to the surprise of many observers, openly chanted anti-Kremlin chants such as “No to war!” and “Russia without Putin!” intoned. Since the beginning of the war, critics and dissidents have usually been arrested immediately if they publicly express their dissatisfaction in any way.

What will happen after the election?

The 71-year-old Putin then secured six more years at the helm of Russia – and can theoretically run again in 2030. In order to allow as many terms in office until 2036, the Kremlin chief had the constitution changed almost four years ago. After the presidential election, a new government is traditionally appointed.

Some political scientists believe that repression against critics in Russia will increase after the election. Russian political scientist Andrei Kolesnikov said in a media briefing organized by the German Sakharov Society: “This regime will undoubtedly develop exclusively in a bad direction. It will not allow any vulnerabilities. It will not liberalize. It will not normalize . And that’s exactly where the danger lies.” In his assessment, Putin’s Russia is now more than just an authoritarian state: “There are definitely elements of totalitarianism or neo-totalitarianism.”

Is there any prospect of political change?

Hardly anyone will see it in the near future. A significant part of Russian society consists of “passive conformists” who support the war, says Kolesnikov. Despite all the repression, there are still responsible citizens who stand up against it. But for change, an “impulse from above” is also needed – as was the case at the end of the Soviet Union under Mikhail Gorbachev.

An opposition politician, who wished to remain anonymous for security reasons, emphasized how important the importance of civil society and networking is, even quietly and on a small scale: “Putin will leave sooner or later, but society will stay.”

Source: dpa