Does she go to Taiwan or not? Even the speculation about a possible visit by US top politician Nancy Pelosi to the island republic is causing tensions between China and the United States to escalate.
What is left to hold onto? The US military doesn’t think this is a good idea, and President Joe Biden can apparently rally behind the assessment. China is extremely out of tune and lets the sabers rattle. And now German politicians fear an escalation that could have “catastrophic consequences.”
But one by one.
Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, left with a delegation to the Indo-Pacific over the weekend to reaffirm “America’s strong and unwavering commitment to our allies and friends in the region” according to an official announcement. The plans therefore include stops in Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan. However, one potential destination not on the list is causing concern: Taiwan.
The island republic with around 23 million inhabitants is located about 50 kilometers east of the Chinese coast, has been a point of tension between Washington and Beijing for decades – and is the scene of a diplomatic dispute that could now get out of hand.
Biden also thinks Pelosi’s trip is “not a good idea”
Quit in April China “strong measures” on, Pelosi should visit the island republic. Then as now, their alleged visit was not officially confirmed by either the United States or Taiwan, but was made public by media reports. At the time, Pelosi had to cancel her trip to Asia because of a Infection with the coronavirus move. Since then, concerns about an escalation, not least in the White House, have grown.
Asked about reports of Pelosi’s alleged travel plans, after which she could travel to Taiwan in AugustUS President Biden quoted the assessment of his military that the visit is currently for “not a good idea” hold. Work is underway behind the scenes to dissuade Pelosi from visiting Taiwan, they said “New York Times” and CNN citing informed circles. The risk of escalation is too great.
The initial situation is tense: The communist leadership in Beijing regards the free Taiwan as part of the People’s Republic and wants to isolate it internationally. On the other hand, the island republic has long regarded itself as independent. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has fueled fears that China could take the island’s democratic republic by force in a similar manner. China’s head of state and party leader Xi Jinping sees it as his mission to implement “unification” – and threatens to use the military in the process.
The USA, in turn, has committed itself to Taiwan’s defense capability, which has so far primarily meant arms deliveries. However, President Biden has gone further than his predecessors and has repeatedly called it a US “obligation” to defend Taiwan in the event of an attack by China.
China holds maneuvers in front of Taiwan
And so the speculation about a possible trip to Taiwan by top politicians has recently increased tensions significantly. China’s leadership generally perceives visits by foreign politicians to Taiwan as a provocation – Pelosi’s, however, would be extremely well-known and of particular political importance: As Speaker of the House of Representatives, the 82-year-old ranks only behind the US President and his Vice President. It would be the highest-ranking visit from the United States in decades.
China is correspondingly clear. A whole series of parliamentary delegations, for example from the USA and the EU, recently traveled to Taiwan, but Beijing left it at verbal warnings. Now China’s military was holding maneuvers with live ammunition near the island republic, and the air force was patrolling near Taiwan – both of which Washington should obviously understand as a warning.
The situation also worsened verbally. In a phone call with US President Biden on Thursday, head of state and party leader Xi Jinping warned his counterpart: “Those who play with fire will perish.” Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian added on Monday: Pelosi’s visit would be “blatant interference in China’s internal affairs”, the People’s Liberation Army would “not stand by and the Chinese side would certainly take energetic and decisive measures to protect our sovereignty and territorial integrity. ”
US in a bind over Taiwan
This puts the US government in an awkward position. If Pelosi cancels the alleged visit to Taiwan, the cancellation could be understood as a cave-in to China’s threats. If she goes on the visit, it is likely to dangerously increase tensions with Beijing – and not least to dupe President Biden, who had warned against a visit.
Already, the potential visit has created a rift between Pelosi – a prominent and vocal critic of China for decades — and the Biden administration, which fears an escalation with the superpower. Especially since more and more Democrats and Republicans are backing the top politician, to show a clear edge and start the visit.
“Catastrophic consequences” for the German economy
In the European Union, the situation appears to be being watched with concern “politico” reports, Beijing’s “words could quickly become deeds,” as a diplomat was quoted as saying. In view of the new tensions between China and Taiwan, German foreign politicians have warned of an escalation in the conflict.
The pressure is currently growing because a change of strategy could be imminent at the party conference of the Chinese Communist Party in the fall, said FDP parliamentary group leader Alexander Graf Lambsdorff to the “Rheinische Post”. “Should Chinese President Xi Jinping consider an attack on Taiwan, the US would have to decide whether to intervene or not. If there were an attack, it would have catastrophic consequences, including for our economy.”
According to Lambsdorff, a third of the world’s semiconductor production comes from Taiwan. “With us, almost all supply chains in industry would be affected, many technical products could no longer be manufactured. From washing machines to airplanes.” He added: “It is in our best interest that there is no parallel conflict between Russia and Ukraine and between China and Taiwan.”
Will China attack earlier because of Russia conflict?
Semiconductors can be found almost everywhere today, for example in smartphones, computers, cars or medical devices. A shortage had led to price increases and supply chain problems in many industries during the corona pandemic. Large manufacturing capacities are located in Taiwan in particular.
The CDU foreign policy expert Roderich Kiesewetter also expressed concern in the “Rheinische Post”. He fears that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could come much earlier than previously thought. China is already looking very closely at how the West is dealing with Russia. “The Chinese government could see a strategic advantage in an earlier attack because the West is currently tying up a lot of capacity in the Russia conflict.”