The Ukrainian counter-offensive has begun and Russia is putting up fierce resistance. Nevertheless, Kiev reports initial successes and shows the world press some reconquered villages. Military experts follow the fighting. Your conclusion – different.
Almost all that is left of many houses are skeletons. The bodies of Russian soldiers still lie in some ruins as the Ukrainian army guides the world press through the small villages in the south and east of the country. The settlements were occupied by the Russians for almost a year and a half – for a few days they have been under the control of the Ukrainian army again.
And the Ukrainians want to show that. “This counteroffensive is necessary, even though we all know that the price is the lives of our comrades,” a soldier with the alias Winnie told the AFP news agency.
A Ukrainian soldier walks through a cultural center in the recently recaptured village of Blahodatne in the Donetsk region.
Observers see counter-offensive as crucial
In his New Year’s speech, Volodymyr Zelenskyi declared 2023 the “Year of Victory”. Six months later, however, the Ukrainian troops are advancing only slowly. Ben Hodges, former commander of US forces in Europe and a proven optimist, nevertheless believes that Ukraine could even recapture the Crimean peninsula this summer. If only the West would provide the necessary weapons.
Many observers are far more skeptical. However, many agree that the recent counteroffensive by Ukrainian troops could have a decisive impact on the further course of the war.
Shaded: territories occupied by Russia
Resistance and fierce fighting expected
According to official Ukrainian information, around 100 square kilometers in the south and east of the country have already been recaptured. Only a small fraction of the territory occupied by Russia. Western military experts say it is too early to assess the success of the counteroffensive. You don’t have to be disappointed with the current pace, said General Erhard Bühler im MDR podcast “What to do, Herr General”. The counter-offensive is at a very early stage and the Ukrainians will face continued resistance from Russian forces.
This is also confirmed by Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maljar. “The enemy doesn’t just give up their positions,” stressed Maljar at a press conference in Kiev. The American Chief of Staff Mark Milley also expects fierce fighting. The operation will probably take a lot of time, “and at high costs”.
A lot of preparation, small successes
The Russian troops were able to prepare for the attack on Ukraine for months. Nico Lange from the Munich Security Conference also criticized the fact that the West had hesitated for a long time with the delivery of battle tanks and armored personnel carriers. The Russian soldiers used the time and built complex defense lines, laid narrow minefields and dug defensive positions.
In the face of these obstacles, the Ukrainian advance was successful, says Oleksiy Hetman, a major in the Ukrainian reserve. “Even advancing a few hundred meters is a success.” Once the defenses are breached, things will go faster, Hetman said. In terms of time, however, this moment is still a long way off, according to many observers.
“Such an attack against a prepared defense is not without risk,” says former General Erhard Bühler. The Russian troops had shown that they could successfully defend, halt attacks and then counterattack. Ukrainian soldier Winnie confirmed this to the AFP journalists: “It took two days to clear the area because they had a lot of shelters and passageways. It was really difficult for our boys to drive the Russians out of here.”
conflicting parties as a source
Information on the course of the war, shelling and casualties provided by official bodies of the Russian and Ukrainian conflict parties cannot be directly checked by an independent body in the current situation.
Ukraine: “We must take over air sovereignty”
A challenge for the Ukrainians is the use of combat helicopters, combat aircraft and drones on the Russian side. Their use probably also led to the first documented attacks on western main battle tanks. Russian propaganda media immediately used the images to demonstrate a painful loss on the Ukrainian side. However, it is now known that the Ukrainians managed to recover at least part of the damaged equipment from the battlefield.
“We have to take over air sovereignty,” says Oleksij Hetman from the Ukrainian reserve. “If the troops are covered from the air and the enemy can’t do anything, that gives us additional options.” For this, it needs the modern combat aircraft that Ukraine has been demanding for a long time. Because by regularly shelling cities far away from the front, Russia is tying down the Ukrainian air defense system. The systems can therefore not be used to protect ground troops at the front. “Unfortunately, terror against the civilian population is paying off for Russia. That’s the main problem in this phase,” says Nico Lange.
What is the current situation at the front?
However, little is known about the actual situation at the front. Observers assume that news will reach the public with a few days delay. It is therefore much too early for an analysis, many believe. “They’re keeping radio silence about where they are and how things are doing compared to previous operations. They’re trying to maintain operational security as much as possible,” says American military expert Michael Kofman on his podcast War on the Rocks.
The current attacks on several front sections could also be a deception, says Oleksiy Melnyk. “The biggest mystery for the Russians at the moment is where the main strike should take place.” Meanwhile, soldiers and the population are sworn to secrecy. “Plans love silence” is the name of a video by the Ukrainian government that shows soldiers wearing masks and armor putting their fingers to their lips in a gesture of silence. It almost looks like a movie trailer for the war.
The reality, however, is less cinematic. The cost of war is most visible in the country’s hospitals, where young men are being treated for burns, severed limbs and shrapnel wounds. “We don’t have enough artillery. The front is very long. Everywhere we try to attack, they are waiting for us with their artillery,” military doctor Maxim complained to Swiss television.