France ultimately did not just put away its petits-fours. Paris has decided to recall its ambassadors in Washington and Canberra. This is the latest diplomatic consequence to date linked to Australia’s choice to break the contract for 56 billion euros of submarines that France was to provide it, for the benefit of the Americans. The French executive has therefore decided to raise the tone vis-à-vis the United States, which has embarked Australia and the United Kingdom, but not France, in a new military alliance in the Pacific. The diplomatic crisis is now wide open. 20 minutes make the point.
Is the recall of ambassadors an important event?
It’s simple: this has never happened between the two countries. France, the oldest ally of the United States since the War of Independence, had never recalled its ambassador to Washington. And vice versa. “And yet there was no lack of crises! Even at the time of the Suez crisis, even at the time of the withdrawal of France from the integrated command of NATO, even at the time of the Iraq war “, affirms to 20 minutes the specialist of the United States, Nicole Bacharan. The recall of an ambassador is traditionally a diplomatic “weapon” which marks a crisis between two countries. The fact that it is, in this case, unique, only reinforces the symbol.
With this decision, it seems clear that Paris does not want to let go of what still appears to be a public humiliation. “The United States and Australia have played comedy on the French”, judges Nicolas Bacharan. the New York Times tells the story of all the meetings that have taken place in recent months between French people and Americans or Australians. Without anything of the agreement being negotiated showing through. Even during a meeting between Florence Parly and her Australian defense counterpart in… August. “We can assume that he was not in the loop, that he has a very bad memory or that he decided not to reveal what he knew”, says ironically The Guardian in London. In American diplomatic circles, faced with the scale of the crisis, people are beginning to reproach the Australians for not having warned the French earlier.
Can we speak of a diplomatic misstep on the part of Joe Biden?
Neither France nor the European Union can plead surprise: the “pivot to Asia” of the United States, Washington has been suggesting it for more than ten years. Without really any action until then, it is true. “The United States, but also Australia, had what they wanted at least in the short term, thinks Nicolas Bacharan. But it is not a great success vis-à-vis Europe. Washington blames Europeans for tackling China. Now this “Sudden pivot”, as the name New York Times, is clearly not there to make Europeans embrace the American point of view, thinks Nicole Bacharan.
Joe Biden is starting to put a lot of stones in a lot of gardens of European allies. A German source told a columnist for the Washington post that Europeans were consulted less under Biden than under Trump. Even Poland, one of the most Atlanticist countries in the European Union, says it was “thrown under the bus” when Joe Biden authorized the end of work on the NordStream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany. “The United States will say that it is about ‘building strong alliances, with Germany and Australia’. But who is suffering? Other allies, ”says Michal Baranowski, head of the German Marshall Fund’s office in Poland, at New York Times. Same
Justin trudeau, the Canadian Prime Minister, expressed his irritation at not being of the peaceful alliance. These divisions among Westerners “can only do the business of Putin and even China”, fears Nicolas Bacharan.
Can the refreshment between France and the United States last?
American strategists believe that the situation will settle down. We should not however save a period of cold between Paris and Washington. “I do not see Macron pass the sponge right away, he still took a personal slap”, believes Nicole Bacharan who has just gone out with Dominique Simonnet The Great Days That Changed America (Perrin). Before the escalation of these last hours, Jean-Eric Branaa nevertheless estimated with 20 minutes that neither France nor the United States had any interest in raising the sauce for too long. Because France is not that important, on the one hand, and the United States still has a good relationship with it, on the other.
So the cold, but until when? Nicole Bacharan thinks that the rapprochement will be done in favor of a future crisis with Russia, China or another authoritarian regime. At that time the two camps will have to come together because the United States and Europe mutually need each other. “These are democracies, which have much closer interests than with authoritarian states. NATO is in any case not based on love or affection but on common interests between States. “