How Australians are preparing for El Niño

The El Niño weather phenomenon will bring Australia an extremely hot and dry summer. The affected farmers are trying to protect the land and animals as best as possible – and they are also taking unusual measures.

Avocado farmer Timothy Kemp starts the irrigation system. A small sprinkler rotates under each tree. “I would like to have a completely normal summer again,” says the farmer from New South Wales. But after three very wet years, meteorologists are expecting the opposite this year: heat and dryness.

In July 2023, the World Meteorological Organization declared the El Niño weather phenomenon. In September 2023 it was also officially declared in Australia. The Pacific region is threatened by extreme weather conditions such as heat waves, droughts and floods.

El Niño occurs every two to seven years

The weather phenomenon usually reaches its peak around Christmas time, which is why Latin Americans have named it El Niño, which translates as “the boy”. The name refers to the newborn Christ child, whose birth is celebrated at Christmas, the time when the weather phenomenon occurs.

Climate researchers such as Andrea Sacketto from the University of New South Wales emphasize that El Niño is a natural weather phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years and shakes up the weather.

Taschentto points to a map of the Pacific Ocean between South America and Australia. In the east, on the coast of South America, the water is colored red; the water surface there is currently hotter than usual. The area extends like an elongated tongue into the middle of the Pacific. In the west off the coast of Australia the water is cooler than usual.

“As if someone had turned on a powerful hairdryer”

In normal years, the wind blows over the Pacific from east to west, pushing warm water towards the Australian coast. In the case of El Niño, the ocean currents in the Pacific change.

It was as if someone had turned on a powerful hairdryer, says Scott Heron from James Cook University in Townsville. The warmer surface water accumulates off the coast of South America, warm, moist air rises and leads to heavy rainfall. The east coasts of Australia and Southeast Asia, on the other hand, suffer from heat and drought.

Lots of small fires against one big one

Australian avocado farmer Kemp hopes that he will get through the dry El Niño summer well. It was a miracle that he was spared from the devastating bushfires of 2019/20, he says as he looks out over his vast country.

“To be honest, we were scared to death. My heart still pounds when I think about it. We could have lost everything.” The fire stopped just before his farm, the wind changed. Because there was no fire back then, there is now a lot of dry greenery on the forest floor. That makes the situation particularly dangerous for him this summer. There’s plenty of food for a fire.

Kemp therefore burned back green as a precaution. He intentionally lights smaller fires and burns smaller areas in a controlled manner when the weather is stable and not windy. It burns a maximum of two hectares, i.e. an area about the size of three football fields. Many small fires are easier than one large, devastating one. In doing so, he follows the example of the indigenous people of Australia, who have followed this practice for thousands of years.

Impacts felt worldwide

The natural weather phenomenon El Niño lasts approximately one year and has global effects. The heated water surface releases heat into the atmosphere. This means that the heat can even travel to the poles and influence the Antarctic ice there. According to EU scientists, 2023 was likely to be the hottest year in 125,000 years.

Australian horse breeder Sally Barberra is preparing for El Niño summer. She has been stocking up on hay for the animals for weeks because the grass in the pasture is drying out. Delivery of additional water has been ordered. “We normally collect rainwater from the roof and direct it into two tanks. But without rain, the tanks remain empty.”

In the short term, the dry weather means higher costs for them. The prices for hay and water went through the roof, she says. In the past few days the situation around Sydney has eased a little as it has been raining off and on. But they shouldn’t lull themselves into a false sense of security. “All it takes is one hot day and we can get going again.”

A country of extreme weather

The El Niño weather phenomenon is different every time, says climate researcher Taschentto. But despite the unusual rainfall in eastern Australia, which has even led to severe flooding in the northeast, El Niño is still here and developing. The short-term atypical weather events would not change that.

Australia is a country of extreme weather. “Floods, then drought, floods, bushfires. That’s just Australia,” says horse breeder Barberra. It was only around two years ago that the water on the property was up to her neck. She points to the hurdles her horses usually jump over. They were no longer visible. In the long term, weather extremes such as floods and droughts destroyed their land, the paddocks and the trees.

Farmer Kemp also shares this fate. He has lost two-thirds of his avocado trees due to severe flooding since 2020. The roots have rotted due to the constant moisture. Now he’s worried about the drought. “It’s like getting into the ring with an award-winning boxer. You can take a few punches. But if he hits you multiple times from the right and left, then at some point you’ll fall over,” says the third-generation farmer.

The consequences are becoming more and more dramatic

The last extreme El Niño event in Australia was in 2016, before that in 1998 and 1982. There were milder El Niño years in between. It is not yet possible to say exactly how strong El Niño will be this year. “We know that the impact of El Niños will become more dramatic with climate change,” says Nicki Hutley, a member of the Australian Climate Change Council.

In addition, El Niño will occur more frequently in the future. “Although it is a natural phenomenon, it is affected by global warming.” Unlike human-caused global warming, the warming in El Niño years is only temporary.

However, the effects should not be underestimated. They went through all areas of society. El Niño reduces the yield of many agricultural products. In 2022/23, Australia had a record wheat harvest of around 40 million tonnes due to wet La Niña weather. Due to the opposite weather phenomenon El Niño, which brings drought, the harvest could be halved. It is not possible to work on construction sites because of the heat, and more people are developing illnesses such as asthma, allergies or heart problems.

Be careful Natural disasters is big

Horse breeder Barberra says the weather is an ongoing issue among farmers. She also works part-time as a saleswoman in a feed store in the neighborhood. “I think that’s the main reason why many farmers have mental health problems. Their lives completely depend on the weather.”

A recent survey of Australian farmers shows that 30 percent have attempted suicide or harmed themselves. Every ten days a farmer in Australia takes his own life. This is twice as likely as the average Australian population, explains the National Farmers Federation. The weather and natural disasters are cited as the main reasons for concern.

Impact on the Great Barrier Reef

An increase in water temperatures caused by El Niño could also impact Australia’s famous Great Barrier Reef. “We suspect that by April temperatures will be high enough to cause coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef,” says Scott Heron from James Cook University. Depending on how severe the bleaching is and how long it lasts, it affects coral growth and reproduction.

If bleaching lasts too long, it can result in complete coral death. That would be devastating because the Great Barrier Reef is not only a habitat for millions of underwater creatures, but also for many people on land who live off a healthy reef. Australia is just one of many regions in the world affected by El Niño – how severe will become clear in the coming weeks.