The government is missing 60 billion euros – at least. The SPD would therefore like to decide on a budget emergency in order to be able to incur more debt. Several experts believe this is possible – under certain conditions.
In the traffic light government’s dispute over the 60 billion euro gap in the federal budget, SPD General Secretary Kevin Kühnert advocated suspending the debt brake. With a view to declaring a so-called budget emergency, he said in the joint morning magazine ARD and ZDF: “If the SPD were to govern alone, then that would certainly be something we would do, not out of trickery, but because the emergency is objectively given.” This is being discussed in the coalition. According to the law, the government can declare an emergency and suspend the debt brake if it finds itself in a crisis through no fault of its own.
He rejected radical austerity measures. “Simply saving 60 billion somewhere in the budget with a lawnmower, making social cuts, reversing the transformation of our society, no longer supporting companies in international competition and thus losing jobs in Germany – that is something that the SPD was not elected for 2021. And we will never raise our hand for that in the German Bundestag.”
Habeck: No majorities for reform
His party mate, SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich, sees it similarly. In order to mitigate the effects of the budget ruling, he believes it is necessary to suspend the debt brake – at least for 2024. “In my view, we will not be able to avoid making an exception for 2024 – possibly longer,” Mützenich told the magazine “Stern “. “The tasks that lie ahead of us will not be completed next year. There are huge challenges ahead of us, in terms of climate change, the new industrial policy, but also in terms of foreign policy.” SPD leader Saskia Esken had previously advocated not applying the debt brake in 2023 and 2024.
Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck considers the debt brake in its current form to be no longer up to date, but does not see a majority in favor of reform. “Personally, I make no secret of the fact that I think the way the German debt brake is constructed is not intelligent enough,” said Habeck on Monday daily topics. It is “very static” and does not distinguish between money that is spent during the year and investments in the future that will only pay off years later.
The debt brake is anchored in the Basic Law. A two-thirds majority in the Bundestag would be necessary for changes. Here the traffic light would also depend on the votes of the Union.
Explain emergency with energy crisis?
But even declaring an emergency in order to temporarily suspend the debt brake is not that easy according to the Federal Constitutional Court’s ruling. The legal scientist Alexander Thiele, who was named by the SPD, still sees a possibility, as he explained at an expert hearing in the Bundestag’s budget committee. He recommended declaring an emergency situation for the current year and using the debt brake exception rule. At the beginning of 2023, the effects of the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine continued to be very noticeable. He would therefore say: “There was justifiably such an emergency.”
The legal scientist Hanno Kube, appointed by the Union, also believes that the decision to create a new emergency for 2023 is “not ruled out in advance”. This can be argued as long as the financial effects of the energy crisis are noticeable. However, the Bundestag would then have to decide on a supplementary budget for the current year.
Thiele and Kube thus contradicted the economist Dirk Meyer from the University of the Federal Armed Forces in Hamburg, appointed by the AfD. He had made it clear that he saw little basis for a new emergency resolution.
District day for Aus der Basic child protection
Another option for raising the missing billions would be radical austerity measures. The FDP, for example, is calling for cuts in social benefits.
The German District Council came up with a very specific idea: it called on the federal government to drop the introduction of basic child welfare. President Reinhard Sager stated that all expenses must be checked. “Those things that have no proven added value but cost a lot of money and lead to new bureaucracy are at the top of the list,” explained Sager.
For the coming year, the Family Ministry’s budget only includes money for preparations. In the planned starting year of 2025, 2.4 billion euros should be available for basic child welfare.
The railway could also be missing billions
The Federal Constitutional Court’s ruling also affects Deutsche Bahn. As “Spiegel” reports, Federal Transport Minister Volker Wissing is said to have admitted to the Bundestag’s budget politicians that the railway is facing a restructuring gap of 25 billion euros. This could be a consequence of last Wednesday’s ruling.
Half of the 25 billion euros should actually flow from the Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF), which the Constitutional Court has effectively overturned. It has been clear since the verdict that these 12.5 billion euros are shaky. The other 12.5 billion euros are the railway’s equity capital, which the federal government wants to increase in the coming years. But apparently Wissing also classified this part of the financing as being at risk due to the judgment.
Eva Ellermann, ARD Berlin, tagesschau, November 21, 2023 1:59 p.m