Health crisis, reforms, diplomacy … what can Emmanuel Macron announce during his speech on Tuesday?

The cold has returned, accompanied by the beginnings of a new wave of Covid-19. On Friday, nearly 9,000 new cases were reported by Public Health France, an increase of 39% compared to the same day the previous week. Faced with this new outbreak, Emmanuel Macron must speak Tuesday evening at 8 p.m. An intervention to follow on TF1 and LCI.

From government sources, this speech will be modeled on that of July 12, when the President of the Republic had decided to extend the health pass, which Parliament authorized on Friday the possible recourse until July 31, 2022. What can be done? announce it this time? If the management of the health crisis should be the main subject discussed, the Head of State could also discuss the economic situation, and in particular the latest measures taken for purchasing power, but also the recent diplomatic tensions – with the Kingdom. – United, Australia or the United States – while France will assume, from January, the presidency of the European Union.

In terms of Covid, the health pass will once again be at the center of Emmanuel Macron’s speech. And for good reason, while the government is looking for the most effective way to impose the third dose, the device appears to be the most effective to get there. On Friday in Montpellier, Prime Minister Jean Castex told AFP that the executive was considering making the health pass dependent on the vaccine booster “no doubt more than the path of compulsory vaccination for those over 65”. He promised a “reply soon”.

Last July, the speech of the Head of State, which announced the establishment of the pass, had borne fruit. Four million French people had made an appointment online in the wake to be vaccinated. But if, especially thanks to this measure, France is ahead of many of its neighbors, with nearly 75% of its population having received a complete vaccination schedule, the pace of the summer has fallen and the government and caregivers are worried. “In the hospital, 96% of patients are not vaccinated, but we are starting to see elderly or immunocompromised people doubly vaccinated”, explains infectious disease specialist Robert Sebbag on LCI.

While the United States began its vaccination campaign against Covid-19 on 5-11 year olds on Tuesday, November 2, vaccination of French children should not, however, be on the agenda for Emmanuel Macron. French pediatricians and epidemiologists believe that it is not useful for the moment. In the USA “Many more children are hospitalized for serious forms, linked to the fact that many children are in a situation of obesity there. It is therefore legitimate, in this context, that they begin the vaccination of young children “, explained on November 4 on franceinfo Professor Alain Fischer, Chairman of the Vaccine Strategy Orientation Council. According to Health Insurance, in France, “12% of children in the high school section were overweight and 3.5% were obese in 2013”.

In addition, the conclusions of the European Medicines Agency, which is currently examining the subject of childhood vaccination, are not expected before December. However, the French vaccine strategy is conditional on its approval, then that of the Haute Autorité de Santé.

Beyond the subjects relating to Covid-19, economic recovery and the pursuit of reforms should also be an integral part of this speech, which could be the last before Emmanuel Macron officially launches his presidential campaign. Will pension reform be put on the table again? During his speech on July 12, Emmanuel Macron indicated that this reform, suspended at the start of the epidemic, would be relaunched as soon as “the sanitary conditions would be met”.

At the end of October, the Court of Auditors reiterated its call for a reform “necessary”, given the persistence of deficit expected for at least ten years. And while the Senate embarked on Monday in the critical examination of the 2022 budget of the Secu, the right-wing senatorial majority, it calls on the government to assume its responsibilities and to stop pushing back a reform “difficult, but essential”. It puts on the table a gradual postponement of the age of opening of retirement rights to 64 years from the 1966 cohort. This reduction of the age would be coupled with the acceleration of the implementation of the reform. Touraine in 2014 on the number of quarters worked, with “a convergence” special regimes towards these parameters before 2032.

Emmanuel Macron should also discuss the economic situation of the country. Because despite good unemployment figures, tensions persist, especially concerning purchasing power and the increase in the price of raw materials. The president could therefore provide further details on the aid already announced, such as the additional aid of 100 euros which will be paid in December to the 5.8 million beneficiaries of the energy check. If the unions have generally welcomed this boost, they warn against a lasting rise in prices and continue to demand new negotiations on wages.

Diplomatic tensions between France, the United States and the United Kingdom should also be on the agenda, as France prepares to assume, from 1 January 2022, the six-monthly presidency of the Council of the European Union. The abrupt cancellation of the submarine contract with Australia was a blow to Emmanuel Macron, who could consider reconsidering his strategic partnerships with the English-speaking sphere.

The standoff with England over migrants could also be mentioned. At the beginning of October, the Minister of the Interior Gérald Darmanin called for the negotiation of a treaty on the migration issue between the EU and the United Kingdom, from which he firmly demanded the money promised to fight against trafficking on the coasts French. The United Kingdom in fact committed at the end of July to pay France 62.7 million euros in 2021-2022 to finance the strengthening of French law enforcement on the coasts.