Lai won the election in Taiwan on January 13th. Now he is officially taking over the official duties. What does he plan to do with the democratic island republic, which is in constant conflict with Beijing?
In the tense relationship with China, Taiwan’s new President Lai Ching-te called on Beijing to end its intimidation attempts at his inauguration.
“I would also like to call on China to stop its political and military intimidation against Taiwan,” the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) politician said during his inaugural speech to thousands of supporters in Taipei. China should share the responsibility with Taiwan to maintain peace and stability in the strait between the two countries (Taiwan Strait) and the region.
The future of cross-strait relations between the People’s Republic of China and Taiwan, officially called the Republic of China, would have a crucial impact on the world. The 64-year-old said his government will neither give in nor provoke and will maintain the status quo. This means that Taiwan should effectively remain an independent country. The Communist Party in Beijing counts the island and its more than 23 million inhabitants as part of its territory, although it has never ruled Taiwan and there has been a democratically elected government in Taipei for decades.
A few hours after the swearing-in, China accused him and his new government of provocation. The situation in the Taiwan Strait, the strait between the two countries, is complex and serious, said spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, Chen Binhua. The reason for this is that Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) “stubbornly” adheres to the “separatist position” of Taiwan independence. The mainland and Taiwan were part of the same China. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said pursuing independence and secession for Taiwan was doomed to failure.
Beijing responds with sanctions
A war in the Taiwan Strait would have dramatic consequences, as the strait, which is between around 130 and 180 kilometers wide, is an important shipping route for world trade and Taiwanese companies produce globally important chip technology.
In addition, the USA, as Taiwan’s closest ally and arms supplier, would be drawn into the conflict through its promise to help in the event of defense. At the same time as Lai took office, China announced sanctions against three US defense companies. Affected were Boeing’s defense, space and security divisions, as well as General Atomics Aeronautical Systems and General Dynamics Land Systems, which were placed on an “unreliable companies” list. This is intended to punish them for supplying arms to Taiwan.
Because the DPP stands for Taiwan’s independence, Beijing sees Lai and the party as separatists. The People’s Liberation Army repeatedly demonstrates its military strength in the Taiwan Strait. Beijing also threatened to use military force if it could not unify Taiwan with the mainland through peaceful means. “I hope China realizes the reality of Taiwan’s existence and respects the choice of the people of Taiwan,” Lai said. At the same time, he offered Beijing that both countries could exchange ideas again about the resumption of tourism.
Lai calls for resolute defense of Taiwan
However, unless China refrains from using force against Taiwan, Beijing’s desire to annex Taiwan will not simply disappear, he said. Chinese fighter jets are already flying towards Taiwan almost every day and penetrating the air defense zone there, to which Taiwan’s military always reacts and sends some planes into the air themselves. “Faced with China’s many threats and infiltration attempts, we must show our resolve to defend our country,” Lai said.
Shen Po-yang, a member of the defense committee in Taiwan’s parliament, estimates that China will be ready for an invasion by 2027. The DPP politician, also known in Taiwan as Puma Shen, sees the best time for an attack as when 40 to 50 percent of the population would vote to surrender in the event of an attack.
“You could just fire the first rocket, and if the people say they want to surrender and sign a peace treaty, then that would be the end of the war within a week.” Shen is therefore calling for more cybersecurity and regulation of social media such as the Chinese Bytedance company’s short video platform Tiktok so that Beijing’s propaganda cannot spread in Taiwan.
Domestic political situation difficult for government
Lai and his deputy Hsiao Bi-khim won the presidential election on January 13th with around 40 percent of the vote. The USA and Japan sent delegations to the swearing-in of the president and government. A group of parliamentarians from the CDU, SPD and FDP also traveled from Germany. Only a dozen countries officially recognize the island nation, including the Vatican, Paraguay and Haiti. Germany, Japan and the USA are not included, otherwise there would be a diplomatic crisis with China.
In front of the presidential residence, groups performed dances, bands played and the army fired a gun salute. For the third time in a row, the DPP has the head of state, who is also the commander-in-chief of the armed forces. The previous President Tsai Ing-wen was not allowed to run again after two terms in office. However, the DPP lost its absolute majority in parliament and is now dependent on alliances.
The largest opposition party is the pro-Beijing Kuomintang, which clashed with DPP politicians in a dispute over several bills in a turbulent parliamentary session on Friday. Scuffles broke out between MPs and around a handful were subsequently checked for injuries in hospital. Given the political situation, there are likely to be significantly more hurdles for the new government to overcome in parliament.