GEOFFROY VAN DER HASSELT / AFP
What our poll compiler reveals three weeks before the European vote
POLITICS – An escape, a duel and the group. Here is the picture of the polls three weeks to the day of the European elections. As the race accelerates, Jordan Bardella for the National Rally maintains the gulf he has dug with the competition, while everyone’s positions seem to be somewhat frozen.
After a discontinuous decline or almost since she entered the campaign, Valérie Hayer stabilizes a little above 16% in our poll compiler. The candidate, relatively unknown to the general public when she was nominated at the end of February, spares no effort and engages in debates, trips and the media.
In recent weeks, it has also been able to count on significant reinforcements, with interviews and speeches from Emmanuel Macron, then the increasing investment of Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, particularly in his public meetings. Enough to stop the bleeding for good and avoid a crossing of the curves so dreaded in macronia? The gap with Raphaël Glucksmann seems in any case to have reached a form of stationary state, as you can see in our graph below.
After several weeks of momentum, the candidate of the Socialists and Place publique is currently capping around 13.5% of voting intentions. He therefore continues to dominate the competition on the left, but remains a few lengths behind Valérie Hayer, while the campaign is entering the hard part.
Environmentalists in danger
Behind this duel for second and third place, the peloton is fighting. With the exception of the rebellious Manon Aubry who confirms a -very- slight tremor (around 7.6%), all the candidates are at half mast. The Reconquest list led by Marion Maréchal, for example, remains stuck around 6.2%, just behind François-Xavier Bellamy, the Republican candidate who loses a few points.
Two unenviable situations… Unless you look at that of environmentalists. Falling behind, Marie Toussaint’s list continues to suffer in a campaign where current events take precedence over everything else and where environmental issues remain non-existent: it continues to drop and is now approaching the rating of Red alert).
In our poll compiler, Greens are credited with barely 6% of voting intentions, just above the waterline. As a reminder, a list which collects less than 5% on June 9 does not send any elected official to the European Parliament. Which would be a cataclysm for Marine Tondelier’s party, pro-European even in its (former) name, and which was able to send 13 elected officials in 2019 with its 13.5%.
Marie Toussaint, like the other candidates, now has three weeks to move the lines. After the presentation of the lists and programs, new highlights will follow one another with several debates between the heads of the list, a confrontation between Gabriel Attal and Jordan Bardella, not to mention the traditional meetings. What to restart the race?
This compiler, which aggregates surveys published by around ten polling institutes, is not intended to predict the outcome of the election but to provide a snapshot of opinion at a moment’s notice and to highlight trends.
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