First party, first served? It has been nearly a year since Xavier Bertrand said he was preparing for the presidential election. After a comfortable re-election at the head of Hauts-de-France on June 27, the former minister of Nicolas Sarkozy confirmed that he would go “to meet all the French to redress our country”. Sweeping away any idea of a primary, the Northerner has in the polls a slight lead over his potential competitors on the right. And he begins to garner support in his former family, The Republicans.
“We now have a natural candidate: Xavier Bertrand”, thus slices Guillaume Peltier, the number 2 of the party, this monday in The Parisian, on the eve of a crucial political office on the process of deciding between the candidates. But ten months before the presidential election, has Xavier Bertrand already killed the match with his competitors?
“Bertrand made the hole, and this hole will widen”
For his supporters, of course, the answer is positive. “Xavier Bertrand embodies, like Nicolas Sarkozy in 2007, popular France. He understood the three challenges of the presidential election: work and salaries in the face of the assistantship, authority in the face of political Islam, the freedoms of our provinces in the face of Parisian centralism. […]. He is the best placed among us, the only one capable of beating Emmanuel Macron and winning the right “, develops Guillaume Peltier in The Parisian, referring to recent polls.
In surveys, the candidate obtains between 14 and 20% of voting intentions, approaching the duo Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, and having precious points ahead of his potential opponents on the right, Valérie Pécresse and Laurent Wauquiez. “He made the hole, passing 18%, well ahead of the others, and this hole will widen. He is on the way to becoming the natural candidate, the most able to bring together. Let’s not be the dumbest right in the world by dividing ourselves, ”argues the LR deputy from the North, Sébastien Huyghe.
“A natural candidate cannot be decreed”
Still, the profile of Xavier Bertrand, who left LR in December 2017, still does not achieve consensus within the right. And his opponents are hardly convinced by his lead in the polls. “We see a sounding jolt because it is the only officially declared candidate. But no one on the right is able to qualify for the second round today. A natural candidate is the one who is capable of coming to disturb the match between Le Pen and Macron “, tempers the deputy of Essonne Robin Reda, support of Valérie Pécresse, who must decide” after the summer “on a possible application.
Same lack of enthusiasm in the entourage of Bruno Retailleau: “Xavier Bertrand is a bit the force. A natural candidate, it cannot be decreed, it is the one that is imposed on everyone, that no one disputes, it is Nicolas Sarkozy in 2006. It is also the one who is able to win in 2022, but this is not the case. So the primary, in accordance with our statutes, remains essential, ”argues a close friend of the boss of senators LR.
Primary or not primary? “We need clarity, nobody understands anything”
Tuesday evening, the LR mayor of Antibes, Jean Leonetti, will present to the LR political office his tracks to decide between the presidential candidates. But in the JDD, Sunday, he has already pleaded for some form of open primary from the right and the center in November. The fact remains that the party will also launch a poll at the end of August, among right-wing supporters, at the risk of fueling confusion …
“We need clarity, nobody understands anything, slice the LR deputy of Vaucluse Julien Aubert. We must quickly act on a tie-breaking system, unless a candidate wins before the end of September. That is to say if one of them really makes a hole in the polls by being closer to the Macron-Le Pen duo than to the other right-wing candidates. A return, therefore, to the initial problem.
But while LR is brainstorming to find a way out, which Valérie Pécresse, Laurent Wauquiez or Michel Barnier procrastinate, Xavier Bertrand, him, traces his route, hoping to see, at the end, the Elysee. And time seems to be on its side. A relative of one of his competitors sighs: “Christian Jacob wants to avoid the primary. The goal is to decide as late as possible to say “it’s too late”, and that the poorly put together tie-breaker will be eaten up by the Bertrand dynamic. “