Will “normal” life ever resume? A life in which the Covid-19 will not make the headlines every day, in which we will not worry about the incidence rate and the number of intensive care beds? Probably, but at least not this summer. In recent weeks, the fear of an epidemic rebound carried by the Delta variant, formerly nicknamed “the Indian variant”, has been growing. In Ile-de-France, the incidence rate, that is to say the number of cases per week per 100,000 inhabitants, is now greater than 44. In Paris, it even reaches 70.
Admittedly, these figures are far from those recorded in the region in the spring – 610 at the end of March – but they have been increasing at high speed since the beginning of the month. The incidence in Ile-de-France has increased by 61.8% in the last seven days. In Paris, it even doubled. And all the figures tend towards the same observation: the positivity rate of the tests is now 1% and the R0, that is to say, the number of people who will infect a carrier of the virus, has gone back above the threshold of 1 (currently 1.2), which means that the epidemic is gaining ground after two months of decline.
The Delta variant, an “accelerator” of recovery
“The waves are linked to our way of life,” explains Michèle Legeas, teacher at the School of Advanced Studies in Public Health, specialist in the analysis and management of health risk situations. As soon as we notice a relaxation of barrier gestures or containment measures, the spread of the virus resumes. The variant accelerates its propagation. »More contagious than the British variant, itself more contagious than the original strain, the Delta variant spreads more quickly and therefore generates more cases. On July 1, it represented, in Ile-de-France, nearly 49% of new contaminations – against less than 4% at the beginning of June. And according to the director of the ARS, it already represents more than half of the cases in the capital.
If the epidemic resumption is no doubt, it remains to be seen whether this wave will once again result in hospital overload. For now, hospital indicators are green. There are, in Ile-de-France, 29 new hospitalizations linked to the coronavirus every day, against 600 in mid-April. A figure that starts to rise again this week while in intensive care, the decline continues: 287 beds are currently occupied by patients who have contracted the virus, against 1,800 in mid-April.
“For now, it’s too early to see the effects of this Delta on the hospital. You have to wait two or three weeks, ”says Michèle Legeas. Maybe even a little more because the epidemic data show that the contaminations concern for the moment mainly the young people, considered less at risk of having a form requiring hospitalization. In Ile-de-France, the incidence among 20-39 people is 77 cases per 100,000 inhabitants against 15 cases per 100,000 inhabitants among 60-79 year olds.
Vaccination slows down
The fact remains that this time, unlike the previous rebounds of the epidemic, France has effective vaccines and in number to mitigate the effects of this wave. “The whole issue today is this decorrelation between the epidemic and hospital curves, as is currently the case in Israel or Great Britain”, continues the researcher. But the two countries are more advanced than France on vaccination: nearly 51% of the Ile-de-France population has received at least one dose. In Paris, it is even 62.5%, which did not prevent the epidemic from resuming.
“The populations most at risk are starting to have good vaccination coverage,” notes Michèle Legeas. But the 15-45, who are often those who are often less careful about barrier gestures, are not yet sufficiently vaccinated. In recent weeks, the number of first injections has dried up sharply despite a recovery in recent days. Hence this race against time initiated by the government to avoid having to “tighten the screws” again, by closing nightclubs, restaurants and shops during the summer.