You know that from sport, sometimes hundredths decide a place on the podium. This is what happened to the district of Ebersberg in the category of population growth: only two percentage points more and it would have been enough to win the Upper Bavarian championship and second place in the Free State ranking: 12.2 percent more people than at present will be living in 2041 between Anzing and live assling. In Upper Bavaria, growth over the same period is only higher in the district of Pfaffenhofen (12.4 percent). Across Bavaria, Ebersberg is still enough for third place, with the district of Landshut at the forefront of growth with 13.2 percent.
At the beginning of last year – the most recent state of the population statistics – 144,600 people lived in the district of Ebersberg. Currently, according to the forecast, there should be around 147,400 people. According to forecasts by the State Office for Statistics, the number of inhabitants in the Ebersberg district will increase to 162,100 in the next two decades. Which means a high growth rate – but not as high as in the 20 years before. In 2001, there were still 120,400 people at home in the district; by the last recorded status in 2021, there were already 24,200 more. In the two decades up to the end of 2041, on the other hand, statisticians only expect the population to increase by 17,500 people.
The statisticians expect above-average growth in one age group
One explanation for the somewhat weaker growth is the expected age distribution: At the end of 2021, a total of 28,600 people were under the age of 18, and by the end of 2041 it should be 31,400, an increase of 9.7 percent, which is a good deal below the overall growth lies. At the other end of the age pyramid, among those over 60, the proportion was still 37,000 people in 2021; it should be 48,700 two decades later, an increase of 31.6 percent, i.e. more than twice as high as the district average . In the middle age groups, those between 19 and 59 years, a total of 79,000 people were counted at the end of 2021, and by the beginning of the decade after next it should be 83,800. That’s just five percent more and less than half the growth rate for the county as a whole.
This corresponds to the trend of the past 20 years, during which time the proportion of older people has grown much faster than that of other age groups. A development that is mainly due to a somewhat weaker influx. Because the growth in the younger age groups is mainly due to the influx of families with children – logically this results in the group of older people with a slight time lag. In recent years – and in the opinion of the statisticians also in the years to come – the influx into the group of younger people no longer seems to be able to completely compensate for the aging, so that the average age is increasing overall.
The demographic trend is particularly evident in the large municipalities
This development is particularly evident in the district municipalities with the strongest population growth, these are above all the three S-Bahn communities in the north and west: Vaterstetten, Poing and Markt Schwaben. The data basis of the municipalities differs somewhat from that of the district – here the period from 2019 to 2039 is considered and there are only three age groups: under 18 years, 19 to 64 years and over 65 years – but the trend is the same.
Poing will therefore grow the fastest of the large municipalities, from 16,122 inhabitants in 2019 to 18,6000 two decades later. This corresponds to growth of 15.3 percent, well above the district average. However, this growth is very much in favor of older people: the group of over-65s will then measure 3,500 people, which is 61.2 percent more than in 2019. For comparison: among under-18s, the increase is 10.1, in the group between youth and seniors only 6.6 percent.
The situation is similar in the two neighboring communities, which also have double-digit growth rates with 12.2 percent in Markt Schwaben and 10.2 percent in Vaterstetten. The former will accommodate 15,500 people in 2039, the latter 26,900. In Markt Schwaben, the increase in the group of seniors will be 56.8 percent, in Vaterstetten the figure is 21.9 percent. In the larger municipality, the aging factor also seems to be somewhat weaker: the increase in young people is expected to be 20.1 percent by 2039, while in Markt Schwaben it is only 5.8 percent. However, according to the forecast, the proportion of the working-age population in Vaterstetten will only increase by 2.9 percent, while in Markt Schwaben it will be only slightly less at 2.2 percent.
In the middle and in the south of the district, the population growth is usually weaker
According to the forecasts, the other S-Bahn residents will only grow in the single digits. The growth is expected to be the greatest in the two cities. The statisticians expect a population of 14,700 for Grafing in 2039 and 13,000 for Ebersberg, which corresponds to an increase of 6.7 and 6.6 percent respectively. Zorneding will therefore not break the 10,000 mark by the end of the coming decade, there should be 9,900 inhabitants in 2039, 5.6 percent more than in 2019. In Kirchseeon, the statisticians expect growth of 5.2 percent to 11,200 in the same period Persons. And the proportion of old people will also increase disproportionately in these four municipalities: in Zorneding by 30.7 percent, in Grafing by 31.9 percent, in Kirchseeon by 33.4 percent and in Ebersberg by 34 percent.
The municipality in the district, which the demographers predict the highest growth rate, is not on the railway, it is the municipality of Glonn. The number of residents is expected to increase from 5,337 in 2019 to 6,300 in 2039, which would be an increase of 18 percent. However, the group of seniors is also growing disproportionately here: from 1,016 to 1,800 people, which corresponds to 77.2 percent. According to the forecast, the group of adults under the age of 65 will only increase by 136 to 3,400 people, which corresponds to 4.2 percent. The group of children and young people grew by 13.5 percent to 1,200.
The lowest growth rates are expected in Baiern and Emmering
The second highest increase in the elderly population is in Pliening: the population is expected to grow by 8.9 percent to 6,200 people by 2039, and the rate for seniors is 61.5 percent. A decline in the 18 to 64 age group is also expected here, by 2.5 percent to 3,600 people. In contrast, among the under-18s, there was again a slight increase of 6.3 percent to 1,200.
The trend is similar for the smaller municipalities, but the forecasts here are only calculated up to 2033. Double-digit growth rates are predicted for Oberpframmer with 11.7 and for Egmating with 11.3 percent. In Bruck it should be 9.5 and in Anzing 9.2 percent, Forstinning, Frauenneuharting and Hohenlinden are close together with 7.5 and 7.2 and exactly seven percent, closely followed by Moosach with 6.8 percent. It should be a little less in Aßling with 6.4 and Steinhöring with 6.2 percent, the statisticians expect the smallest increase in Baiern with 5.2 and in Emmering with 4.8 percent.