Guterres in Moscow and Kyiv: Big breakthrough unlikely

With trips to Moscow and Kyiv, UN Secretary-General Guterres is stepping up his efforts to bring about peace in Ukraine. The short-term prospects of success are low – the hopes are more of a long-term nature.

For the UN chief, it could be the most important trip of his term – even if nobody at the United Nations expects António Guterres to work miracles during his talks in Russia and Ukraine.

Main goal: ceasefire

His stated goal is to achieve a ceasefire, said Secretary-General Eri Kaneko’s spokeswoman. “As he wrote in his letters to both presidents, his priority is to talk about how peace can be brought about in Ukraine.”

On the way, Guterres stops in Turkey to speak to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan – currently considered one of the most promising mediators in the conflict. On Tuesday, the UN chief will meet President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin before visiting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Thursday.

Guterres has emphasized that this initiative is not the beginning of an official mediation round. He had unsuccessfully called for a ceasefire over the Orthodox Easter celebrations. “The Secretary-General is not so disappointed that his personal appeal has not been answered,” Kaneko said, “but that there is no ceasefire, that civilians cannot escape from occupied cities and that UN humanitarian aid is not can get there.”

Russia and Ukraine are not waiting for the UN

His focus is on both points. It is unlikely that Guterres will achieve a major breakthrough on his journey, estimates the UN expert from the think tank Crisis Group, Richard Gowan. “But it is incredibly important that the United Nations continues to explore whether there is any chance of bringing about peace in Ukraine.” It is therefore “important and good” that Guterres travels to Moscow and Kyiv. “The positive effects may not show up in the next few weeks. But through this trip, the UN could initiate such peace talks.”

It is surprising in itself that Putin is receiving the UN chief. Guterres had spoken out against Moscow in an unusually harsh manner on several occasions since the invasion. “The reality is that both the Ukrainians and the Russians still believe they can win this war on the ground,” Gowan explains. “They are not waiting for the United Nations to mediate.”

Which does not rule out that this process could start when the fighting has come to a standstill at some point. Guterres should consider asking for an additional trip to the embattled port city of Mariupol to get an idea and potentially facilitate the departure of civilians from the city, Gowan says. “We believe that around 100,000 civilians remain in Mariupol in the worst possible conditions. It is important that they are allowed to leave the city. Perhaps that should be the main focus when the Secretary General speaks to Putin.”

A way out of political impotence?

Many diplomats in New York say the trip could free the UN chief from his political impotence in this war. For them, the step comes much too late. Prior to his announcement, a group of over 200 former UN diplomats wrote an open letter. In it they called on Guterres to finally show more political commitment. Also in order not to endanger the raison d’être of the United Nations.