The wind will drop. strongly. The growth of the French economy will indeed experience a sharp decline in speed in 2023, projects the Banque de France on Saturday. GDP growth will thus fall from 2.6% in 2022 to 0.3% next year, according to the “most probable” scenario retained for the macroeconomic projections for the next three years.
This decline will be followed by a rebound to 1.2% in 2024 – less than the +1.8% previously anticipated, because “the winter of 2023-2024 could still be a bit complicated in the context of the energy crisis”, according to its managing director, Olivier Garnier. The recovery will continue in 2025, with growth expected at 1.8%.
“We cannot rule out a recession”
These forecasts remain subject to high uncertainty due to the high volatility of energy prices, geopolitical tensions, especially the war in Ukraine, and the evolution of the health situation in China with Covid-19, underlines the Bank of France.
This is why it publishes for next year a range of GDP growth between -0.3% and +0.8%. In any case, the institution is more pessimistic than the government, which forecasts 2.7% growth for this year and 1% in 2023. “We cannot rule out a recession, but if there is a recession, it will be limited and temporary,” said Olivier Garnier.
A peak in inflation in the coming months?
If they settle down a bit, oil and gas prices will remain high and will continue to fuel inflation, like food prices. The rise in prices should amount to 7.3% at the end of 2022 and should peak in H1 2023 (6% over the year, as in 2022 on an annual average), before falling back to 4% at the end of next year and to return to around 2% towards the end of 2024 – beginning of 2025.
To measure inflation, the Banque de France uses the harmonized consumer price index (HICP), which allows comparison between European countries and gives more importance to energy prices than the consumer price index. consumption used by INSEE and the French government.